Europe is closer to using nuclear weapons than at any time since the end of the Cold War, warns former Russian foreign minister - Francis Scott - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3500299/Europe-closer-using-nuclear-weapons-time-end-Cold-War-warns-former-Russian-foreign-minister.html?ITO=applenews
- The threat of nuclear war is closer than at any time since the 1980s according to ex-minister Igor Ivanov
- Speaking in Brussels, Mr Ivanov warned the threat has grown due to the Ukraine crisis
- His views, from a man who served as Russian foreign minister from 1998-2004, will alarm diplomats looking for a peaceful resolution to the conflict
The threat of nuclear war has been brought much closer thanks to the stand-off in Ukraine warns a former Russian foreign minister.
Igor Ivanov, who served from 1998 to 2004 and now leads a government backed think-tank, said on Saturday: 'The risk of confrontation with the use of nuclear weapons in Europe is higher than in the 1980s.'
He said the East versus West altercation over the Ukraine crisis has meant the risk of nuclear warfare is growing despite countries cutting their arsenals.
Speaking at an event in Brussels with the foreign ministers of Ukraine and Poland, Mr Ivanov said: 'We have less nuclear warheads, but the risk of them being used is growing.'
His comments will alarm European and NATO diplomats who are looking for a peaceful solution to end the conflict in Ukraine, which has claimed over 9,000 lives since April 2014.
Mr Ivanov said there is little chance of a broad reconciliation between the parties, and blamed a missile defense shield the United States is creating in Europe for raising the stakes.
Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg has warned Russia about intimidating its neighbors by speaking about the threat of nuclear weapons.
But the ex-minister said: 'It can be assured that once the U.S. deploys its missile defense system in Poland, Russia would respond by deploying its own missile defense system in Kaliningrad,' referring to a Russian territory in the Baltics.
'The paths of Europe and Russia are seriously diverging and will remain so for a long time ... probably for decades to come,' he added, before claiming it was Russia's destiny to be a leader in greater Eurasia from Belarus to the Chinese border.
Both Russia and the United States account for around 90 per cent of the global stock of nuclear weapons, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
They are estimated to have around 7,000 warheads each.
Mr Ivanov's comments come as militarization in Europe increased today due to the migration crisis.
Armored personnel were seen patrolling along the Hungarian-Serbian border blocking the main path of migrants looking to leave the Middle East and enter the EU.
Putin's long game has been revealed, and the omens are bad for Europe - Natalie Nougayr�de - http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/18/putin-long-game-omens-europe-russia?CMP=oth_b-aplnews_d-1
Through his writings, Russia's foreign minister tells us what the president really wants - a historic realignment in his favor
While European leaders believe they are edging towards a solution to the refugee crisis after securing a deal with Turkey, another power watches closely from afar: Russia.
A tweet from its foreign ministry spokeswoman said much this week. "The migration crisis has been caused by irresponsible attempts to spread western-type democracy to the Middle East," was the message from Maria Zakharova, hours before EU leaders were set to convene in Brussels. It didn't just reflect Moscow's well-known resistance to anything that smacks of western-driven regime change - it was also meant as a rebuke.
Russia has been accused of "weaponizing" the refugee crisis as a way of destabilizing Europe - a claim recently reinforced by Nato's top commander in Europe. That assertion may well be disputed. What is beyond doubt is the continuing need to know what Russia is thinking, and what goals it might pursue as it watches the EU confront multiple crises.
To get a glimpse into Vladimir Putin's mind, it's worth reading the recent writings of his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov. In a long article published this month by the Moscow-based magazine Russia in Global Affairs- translated here into English - Lavrov spells it out with clarity. What Russia wants is nothing short of fundamental change: a formal, treaty-based say on Europe's political and security architecture. Until Russia gets that, goes the message, there will be no stability on the continent. The key sentence in the article is this: "During the last two centuries, any attempt to unite Europe without Russia and against it has inevitably led to grim tragedies."
Lavrov is not a free thinker able to operate independently of his boss, Putin. He is a technocrat - post-Soviet Russia's longest serving foreign minister (he has held the job since 2004). He plays the diplomatic instrument to a tune set solely by the president. It's true western officials say Lavrov was privately incensed in 2014 by Putin's sudden decision to annex Crimea - a move that flew in the face of Russia's traditional claims of wanting to uphold "international law" - but he stuck to the official script. It is no coincidence that Lavrov's article ran just as Russia was playing for high stakes in Syria, and the Europeans were scrambling for a policy on migrants.
To say that Putin has "weaponized" the refugee crisis hands him too much control over events, for Russia didn't start the crisis. But it has capitalized on a situation that has deepened Europe's weaknesses and divisions. And the crisis has boosted the far-right European movements that Russia supports.
Nato's commander is right to point out that Russia, alongside its prot�g�, Bashar al-Assad, has "exacerbated" the refugee crisis. The actions of its bomber planes over Syria, especially in the Aleppo region, have pushed thousands more desperate families towards the Turkish border. But it should be remembered that the day the migrant crisis first seared itself into the public consciousness was not in 2015 but on 3 October 2013, when hundreds drowned off the island of Lampedusa. That was long before Russia launched its military intervention in Syria.
Nevertheless, it's fascinating to see how Lavrov references European history to bolster his claim that without Russia's cooperation the continent can only be exposed to chaos. He points to Catherine the Great (whose chancellor once proudly said: "Not a single cannon in Europe can be fired without our consent"), the Napoleonic wars and the Crimean conflict of 1853-56. He presents a sweeping, paranoid version of history, in which "western" Europeans have, throughout the ages, conspired to victimize and humiliate Russia.
Lavrov seems to draw a comparison between Putin and Peter the Great, who relied on "tough domestic measures and resolute, successful foreign policy" to make Russia a key European player "in little over two decades". He repeats Moscow's mantras about the cold war not being lost by Russia but ending with the "unlucky chain of events" that led to the dissolution of the USSR. EU and Nato enlargement, he writes, were not about "smaller European countries" going from "subjugation to freedom", but about simply changing "leadership". The result: today, these countries "can't take any significant decision without the green light from Washington or Brussels". In this wild mix, EU institutions are equated to no less than Soviet totalitarianism.
But the centerpiece of Lavrov's argument is that, after 1991, "we should have created a new foundation for European security", and now is the time to do so - if the "systemic problems" that have arisen between Russia and the west are to be overcome. This is not a new Russian message, but Moscow is keen to insert it into current European debates. Last month, Dmitry Medvedev made that clear while attending the Munich security conference. Russia's prime minister may have made headlines with his talk of a new "cold war" or the dangers of a "third global tragedy" - but just as significantly, he bluntly called for a revision of the "architecture of Euro-Atlantic security".
This year is one that arguably offers Russia an unprecedented window of opportunity to push that demand. The refugee crisis threatens key EU institutions, a referendum looms on the UK's relationship to Europe, the Franco-German couple is in dire straits, Angela Merkel is politically weakened, Ukraine is unstable, populist movements are spreading throughout the continent, the Balkans are experiencing new tensions, and the US is busy with an election campaign imbued with isolationism.
No doubt, Russia itself is not as strong as it would like to be. Its economy is in recession and sanctions are biting. But from the Stalinist-style gothic skyscraper of his ministry in Moscow, Lavrov has laid out the long game.
There has been much discussion about Putin's policies in Syria. Many judge that Russia has tried to emerge as a power on a parity with the US, even outmaneuvering it. And there's a rationale to that. For by rekindling a US-Russia duality reminiscent of the cold war - or at least the pretense of it - Putin calculates that the ultimate geopolitical prize will come not in the Middle East but in Europe. That is where Russia's historical obsessions truly lie. Reacting to that reality may well be the next struggle for the continent.
Six East African Countries Bid for Israel's Help in War on Islamist Terror - http://www.debka.com/article/25310/Six-East-African-Countries-Bid-for-Israel's-Help-in-War-on-Islamist-Terror
Co-opting Israel to East Africa's struggle against encroaching Islamist terror topped the agenda of Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta's talks with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem in the third week of February, debkafile's exclusive sources disclose.
Their two countries are already bound by close military and intelligence ties. Kenyatta proposed expanding this partnership into a broad new alliance, comprising Israel and six East African states, for launching a combined campaign to rid their countries of the jihadist Islamic State, Al Qaeda and their affiliates, such as Somalia's Al Shabaab.
Kenyatta said he had been entrusted on his mission to Jerusalem by Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and South Sudan. All six governments trusted in Israeli assistance acting as the lever for upgrading their Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which normally deals with drought and development enterprises, into a multilateral sword against Islamist terror.
As an associate member of IGAD, Israel would undertake to reorganize is members' armed forces, intelligence capabilities and anti-terror bodies, and outfit them with the weapons systems and advanced electronic equipment needed to root out the scourge of terrorism.
Kenyatta emphasized that the six IGAD member states were turning to Israel after taking fright from Nigeria's plight. Its failure to grapple with the ferocious Islamist Boko Haram had sent oil-rich Nigeria's economy into freefall and devalued its currency, the Naira, by half.
DEBKA Weekly's military and counterterrorism sources add that after many years of close military and intelligence cooperation, the Kenyan army is receiving training from Israeli military instructors on tactics for battling Al Shabab inside Somalia and a supply of Israeli weapons tailored for anti-terror warfare. Israeli and Kenyan officers put their heads together on the planning of Kenyan army operations in Somalia.
Saturday, March 19, Kenyan troops Kenyan army killed 21 Shabaab terrorists after two Kenyan troops were killed in a Shabaab IED ambush in southern Somalia. The Kenyan army is part ofthe African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).
In the past year, Israeli counterterrorism and intelligence agencies set up a special command center in the Kenyan port city of Mombasa to lead operations against the Al Qaeda cells embedded in eastern and southern Kenya. When they met in Jerusalem, Kenyatta thanked Netanyahu for Israel's assistance in breaking up most of those cells.
Ethiopia is another East African country with close military and defense links with Israel that go back many years.
Kenyatta explained that Israel was the six governments' preferred partner for fighting terror, after the United States proved indifferent to East African concerns and limits its contribution to the war on terror to widely-spaced air strikes.
Although a US drone attack on March 7 eliminated 150 Islamist terrorists in Somalia, the Kenyan president said that US troops rarely emerge from their navy's expeditionary base at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti to confront Al Shabaab.
Chinese efforts to step into the anti-terror void left by the Obama administration were likewise rejected by the East Africans. They are wary of accepting Beijing's military and economic largesse because it comes with a hefty price tag of Chinese expansionist economic and military footholds in their countries.
In return for military intelligence assistance for combating terror, the six East African governments are offering Israeli firms preferential treatment for developing their markets. Netanyahu is expected by our sources to visit IGAD member capitals in the coming weeks to cement ties and finalize arrangements.
Palestinians plan to ramp up terror to car bombs - http://www.debka.com/article/25294/Elevated-security-for-Jerusalem-Marathon-Alert-for-Palestinian-car-bombs-
Extra soldiers, police and other security personnel are to be drafted in to secure the annual Jerusalem marathon taking place next Friday (March 18). Intelligence authorities are preparing in case Palestinian terrorists use the event for a another surge of violence after hitting three Israeli towns during US Vice President Joe Biden's two-day visit last week.
Israeli security authorities are on the lookout for drive-by shootings from moving cars or even the first Palestinian car bombings.
So far, 5,300 runners have registered for the Jerusalem Marathon, which covers a 42-km course through the streets of the capital, Almost half are visitors from nine countries.
The current Palestinian "intifada" has escalated constantly since it erupted last September. Of late, the knifings, rocks and car attacks on pedestrians have been ramped up to gunfire and explosive devices. debkafile's counterterrorism sources disclose that Palestinian terror planners are said to be gearing up for their first car bombings in Israel's main cities.
Israeli security and the Shin Bet domestic intelligence service are in a race against time to hunt down and forestall these outrages. An intensive effort is underway to nip in the bud the next shooting and firebomb attacks, by disabling the clandestine Palestinian workshops that are producing weapons for terrorist attacks, especially Karl Gustav automatic machine guns.
Gangs of two or three shooters are being recruited for automatic gun shootings coupled with lobbed firebombs.
The hunt is also on for the agents distributing these guns around Palestinian towns.
Late last week, a black-glad, masked terrorist standing by the roadside near Othniel threw a pipe bomb at an Israel car as it drove past. The car was rocked by the blast but no one was hurt.
The next day, Saturday March 12, the IDF placed under lockdown the Palestinian village of Beit Ur A-Tachta, where two drive-by gunmen took refuge after shooting up a checkpoint on Rte 443 near Jerusalem and injuring two soldiers - neither seriously, The village overlooks the key highway.
This attack was especially provoking as it happened on a stretch of Rte 443 that is heavily patrolled by soldiers and monitored by high-grade devices. Yet the gunmen managed a shooting attack and then got clean away.
Indeed, the last two attacks, which looked like the opening shoots of the next ramped-up stage of Palestinian terror, had this in common: Both perpetrators managed to escape. That alone bespoke the involvement of professional terrorists, in contrast to the lone knifemen who are mostly shot dead on the spot or otherwise neutralized by security personnel nearby.
Sunday, March 13, it was revealed that on March 1, an IDF paratroop unit raided and demolished clandestine workshops in Nablus that were turning out improvised Karl Gustav automatic machine guns; on March 11, 15 of these homemade firearms were found hidden at Yaabed, a village near Jenin.
debkafile's military sources report that this was the first serious IDF-cum-Shin Bet operation to cut down Palestinian arms and explosives manufacturing in Judea and Samaria.
Nablus and Yaabed were just the tip of the iceberg. This illicit munitions industry has been thriving during years of Israeli neglect. Nablus was generally known to be the hub of the illegal production of homemade Karl Gustav automatic machineguns - not just for Palestinian terrorists but also for sale to Israeli Arabs across the Green Line. This extended market came to light on March 1 last year, when an Israeli Arab shot up a caf� on Dizengoff St, Tel Aviv, murdering murdered two Israelis.
North Korea threatens to 'burn Manhattan to ashes' with a hydrogen bomb - By Danielle Demetriou - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/12193538/North-Korea-threatens-to-burn-Manhattan-to-ashes-with-a-hydrogen-bomb.html
The claim is the latest in a string of increasingly bold threats made by the hermit regime's leader, Kim Jong-un
North Korea has claimed it could "burn Manhattan down to ashes" by firing a hydrogen bomb into the heart of the city on an intercontinental ballistic missile.
The claim is the latest in a string of increasingly bold threats made by Pyongyang against a backdrop of South Korea and the United States conducting major military exercises on the Korean peninsula.
The statement, which was made via the state-run outlet DPRK Today, claimed that North Korea's hydrogen bomb was more powerful than technology developed by the former Soviet Union.
Many experts believe that Kim Jong-Un, North Korea's leader, is overstating the regime's technical capabilities and doubt its ability to launch a long-range missile to the east coast of the United States.
The increasingly strong rhetoric emerging from Pyongyang appears to reflect the leader's anger at the international community's tough new sanctions recently imposed in response to recent nuclear and missile tests.
"Our hydrogen bomb is much bigger than the one developed by the Soviet Union." DPRK Today was quoted as saying in the Washington Post.
"If this H-bomb were to be mounted on an intercontinental ballistic missile and fall on Manhattan in New York City, all the people there would be killed immediately and the city would burn down to ashes."
The newly-developed hydrogen bomb "surpasses our imagination," a scientist named Cho Hyong-Il is quoted as stating, adding: "The H-bomb developed by the Soviet Union in the past was able to smash windows of buildings 1,000 kms away and the heat was strong enough to cause third-degree burns 100 kms away."
North Korea angered the international community in January when a fourth nuclear test was conducted, although the regime's claims that it was a hydrogen bomb as opposed to an atomic device were doubted by experts.
The following month, North Korea proceeded to launch what was claimed to be a rocket into orbit, although it was widely regarded to form part of the regime's long-range ballistic missile program.
Tensions are currently running high in the region, with the largest ever war exercises so far staged on the Korean peninsula launched last week, involving an estimated 290,000 South Korean troops alongside 15,000 US military.
There are reports that one potential scenario included in the annual drills, which run until the end of April and are twice as big as last year, is exploring military responses to the collapse of the North Korea regime.
The launch of the war games coincided last week with Pyongyang warning that Washington and Seoul would be turned into "flames and ashes", according to North Korean state media.
The regime fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the sea on Thursday in an expression of its discontent, while it also warned it would make a "preemptive and offensive nuclear strike" in response to the exercises.
Nuclear War with North Korea Coming? - By Michael Snyder - http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/nuclear-war-with-north-korea-coming
On Sunday, North Korea warned the United States that it could wipe out Manhattan with a single hydrogen bomb, and earlier this month North Korea threatened to make a "preemptive and offensive nuclear strike" on the United States in response to aggressive military exercises currently being jointly conducted by South Korea and the U.S. military. So does nuclear war with North Korea actually pose a significant security risk to this country? Well, according to the Washington Post the entire west coast of the United States is within reach of North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missiles. The only question is whether or not North Korea's ultra-paranoid leader Kim Jong Un would ever actually press the button.
Most Americans don't realize this, but nuclear war with North Korea is now closer than it has ever been before. In the past, North Korea's technical capabilities were greatly limited, but now all of that has apparently changed. Just consider what has taken place within just the past few months. The following comes from a timeline that was put together by the Arms Control Association...
January 6, 2016: North Korea announces it conducted a fourth nuclear weapons test, claiming to have detonated a hydrogen bomb for the first time. Monitoring stations from the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization detect the seismic activity from the test. The type of device tested remains unclear, although experts doubt it was of a hydrogen bomb based on seismic evidence.
February 7, 2016: North Korea launches a long-range ballistic missile carrying what it has said is an earth observation satellite in defiance of United Nations sanctions barring it from using ballistic missile technology, drawing strong international condemnation from other governments which believe it will advance North Korea's military ballistic missile capabilities.
March 2, 2016: The UN Security Council unanimously adopts Resolution 2270 condemning the nuclear test and launch of early 2016, and demanding that North Korea not conduct further tests and immediately suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile program. Resolution 2270 expands existing sanctions on North Korea by adding to the list of sanctioned individuals and entities, introducing new financial sanctions, and banning states from supplying aviation fuel and other specified minerals to North Korea. Resolution 2270 also introduces a requirement that UN member states inspect all cargo in transit to or from North Korea for illicit goods and arms.
In response to these moves, South Korea and the U.S. military have launched the largest military exercises in the history of South Korea. More than 300,000 troops have gathered to simulate an invasion of North Korea and practice the elimination of North Korea's weapons of mass destruction. These military exercises being held over a period of eight weeks, and this is precisely what caused North Korea to threaten us with a "preemptive and offensive nuclear strike".
And on Sunday, North Korea boasted that they could reduce Manhattan to ashes with a single hydrogen bomb...
"Our hydrogen bomb is much bigger than the one developed by the Soviet Union," DPRK Today, a state-run outlet, reported Sunday. DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, North Korea's official name.
"If this H-bomb were to be mounted on an intercontinental ballistic missile and fall on Manhattan in New York City, all the people there would be killed immediately and the city would burn down to ashes," the report said, citing a nuclear scientist named Cho Hyong Il.
I don't know about you, but I find statements such as these to be quite alarming.
Earlier this month, Kim Jong Un put his nuclear weapons on alert "for use at any time", and Reuters is reporting that he has just ordered his military to conduct even more nuclear weapon tests.
So why is there so little concern about this in the United States?
Sometimes it is the enemy that you underestimate the most that ends up being your greatest threat.
Meanwhile, in the midst of everything else, a North Korean submarine "has gone missing"...
The North Korean regime lost contact with one of its submarines earlier this week, three U.S. officials familiar with the latest information told CNN.
The U.S. military had been observing the submarine operate off North Korea's east coast when the vessel stopped, and U.S. spy satellites, aircraft and ships have been secretly watching for days as the North Korean navy searched for the missing sub.
The U.S. is unsure if the missing vessel is adrift under the sea or whether it has sunk, the officials said, but believes it suffered some type of failure during an exercise.
At a time when tensions on the Korean peninsula are near an all-time high, this is a very disturbing development. The last thing that we need is some sort of "trigger event" that could cause the North Koreans to want to start pressing buttons.
Most Americans don't realize this, but hatred for America is one of the centerpieces of North Korean society. In fact, they have an entire month each year during which they celebrate how much they hate us. The following comes form a New York Post article that was published last June...
June is something like Hate America Month in North Korea.
Officially, it's called "Struggle Against U.S. Imperialism Month" and - more so than usual - it's a time for North Koreans to swarm to war museums, mobilize for gatherings denouncing the evils of the United States and join in a general, nationwide whipping up of anti-American sentiment.
The culmination this year came Thursday - the 65th anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War - with a 100,000-strong rally in Pyongyang's Kim Il Sung Stadium.
If Manhattan actually was reduced to a pile of ashes by a hydrogen bomb, there would be dancing in the streets of Pyongyang.
So let us not underestimate the threat that North Korea poses. They hate us enough to want to completely destroy us, they now have the technological capability of hitting major west coast cities with nukes, and they have an ultra-paranoid young leader with his hand on the trigger. Meanwhile, we have an increasingly aggressive leader of our own sitting in the White House that seems to like to yank Kim Jong Un's chain.
If push came to shove, North Korea would attempt to hit American targets with nukes.
Let us just hope and pray that it does not happen any time soon.
Barack Obama's ill-advised nuclear deal with Iran has kick started a new arms race - Con Coughlin - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/12192078/Barack-Obamas-ill-advised-nuclear-deal-with-Iran-has-kickstarted-a-new-arms-race.html
There is now a genuine risk that Saudi Arabia and its allies will become involved in a dangerous military confrontation with Iran
Iran's decision to test-fire two ballistic missiles emblazoned with the legend "Israel must be wiped out" in Hebrew is not the sort of reassuring conduct one would expect from a country that claims it wants better relations with the outside world.
Timed to coincide with US Vice President Joe Biden's tour of the Gulf states and Israel, the missile launches will not only be seen as an unnecessarily provocative act of aggression by countries like Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.
They are also deeply embarrassing for the Obama administration, which is still trying to reassure its allies in the Gulf and Israel that its controversial nuclear deal with Tehran has ended Iranian attempts to build nuclear weapons - for the time being, at least.
Only a few weeks ago naive enthusiasts of President Obama's nuclear deal claimed that gains made by so-called moderates in Iran's recent elections for the majlis, or parliament, as well as the Assembly of Experts, demonstrated Iran was well on the way to reform and a more transparent system of government.
What these modern-day fellow travelers - and they include many leading lights in our own Foreign Office - fail to appreciate is that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's uncompromising Supreme Leader and guardian of Iran's Islamic revolution, personally vetted all of the candidates. Thus only those with impeccable revolutionary credentials were allowed to stand. So much for Iran's new spirit of reform.
For, despite the modest gains made by these so-called reformers, the fact remains that the real power in Iran lies with the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), whose duty is both to defend and export Iran's revolutionary values throughout the Muslim world - with special focus on neighboring Arab states.
Not only do the Revolutionary Guards control a significant percentage of the Iranian economy - including the country's vast oil reserves. They are also responsible for Iran's defense and security policy which, contrary to Washington's confident predictions in the wake of the nuclear deal, has led to a significant upsurge in Iranian meddling in neighboring Arab states.
The fear now among pro-Western Arab leaders is that Iran will embark on a military build-up funded by the estimated $150 billion Tehran is set to receive as a result of the sanctions being lifted.
The missile tests will certainly be seen by many regional leaders in that context, particularly as many Western intelligence experts are convinced the missiles are being designed specifically to carry nuclear warheads. In addition to continuing to develop its ballistic missile program, Tehran last month also concluded a deal with Russia to improve its missile defenses.
One of the more obvious failings of Mr Obama's nuclear deal is that it allows Iran, a country which the CIA says once had an illicit nuclear weapons program, to continue development work on its ballistic missiles.
Washington no doubt believes there is no harm in Tehran building missiles that can strike at the heart of Europe when it does not have the means to fit them with nuclear warheads.
But that is not how things are viewed in the Gulf. According to senior security officials I have spoken to recently in the region, there is no guarantee that Mr Obama's deal will prevent Iran from continuing work on its nuclear weapons program. As one senior defense official commented: "We know the Iranians well, and we know they have no intention of giving up their ambitions to acquire nuclear weapons."
Not surprisingly, the Gulf states have now embarked on developing a multi-billion pound anti-missile shield of their own. If nothing else, Mr Obama's legacy to the Middle East will have been to initiate a new arms race.
In Israel, too, intelligence officials take the same view about Iran's long-term nuclear ambitions, which no doubt explains Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent decision to cancel his proposed visit to Washington later this month.
The problem now is that if Washington is not prepared to take Iran's continued acts of bellicosity seriously, there are plenty of Arab leaders who will.
For the past two weeks Saudi Arabia has been hosting the Middle East's biggest-ever military exercise - Operation Desert Thunder. An estimated 20 Muslim nations have taken part in the exercise which is aimed at strengthening the ability of the Saudi-led coalition to defend itself against the growing threat posed by Islamist-inspired terror groups, such as Daesh.
But the possibility should not be ruled out that one day these same forces could be used to defend Sunni Arab regimes from the threat posed by Shia Iran. In Yemen, Saudi Arabia is already fighting a proxy war against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, while Riyadh has made no secret of its determination to secure the overthrow of the pro-Iranian regime of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
Despite all the evidence to the contrary, the Obama administration continues to hail the merits of its nuclear deal with Iran, which it insists will form the centerpiece of Mr Obama's legacy when his presidency concludes later this year.
Yet if Iran continues with unprovoked acts of aggression, such as its latest test-firing of ballistic missiles, then there is a genuine risk that Saudi Arabia and its allies will become involved in a direct, and far more dangerous, military confrontation with Iran. And that is most certainly not the kind of legacy Mr Obama had in mind when he concluded his ill-advised deal with the ayatollahs.
Briefing: Sunni and Shia Islam
The split between Sunnis and Shias begins with the death of the prophet Mohammed in 632 AD, and the battle to succeed him as the first Muslim caliph. Sunnis say his brother-in-law Abu Bakr was the rightful heir; Shias say it should have been his son-in-law, Ali. The two groups differ over the nature of the Mahdi (or messiah), the role of Islamic law in society, the correct way to pray, and which texts beside the Quran are canon. Sunnis are the largest group, comprising 80 to 90 per cent of Muslims and spread across the Islamic world from Pakistan to North Africa. Shias are a minority in most places - they were persecuted under the caliphs and the Ottomans - but hold power in Iran, where theirs is the state religion, and Iraq, where they form two thirds of the population. The conflict has ebbed and flowed for centuries now; it won't end soon.
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