49 Countries Met in Brussels Earlier This Month to Discuss a Ground Invasion of Syria - By Michael Snyder - http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/49-countries-met-in-brussels-earlier-this-month-to-discuss-a-ground-invasion-of-syria
Have the U.S government, Saudi Arabia and their allies been secretly plotting a massive ground invasion of Syria? Earlier this month, defense ministers from 49 countries gathered at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium to talk about what to do in Syria. As you will see below, Saudi Arabia's defense minister is now admitting that a ground invasion was discussed at this meeting. Of course the goal of any invasion would be regime change in Syria, and that is something that the Syrian army, Iran, Hezbollah and Russia are simply not going to allow. So what the U.S. government, Saudi Arabia and their allies are contemplating could literally be the spark that sets off World War III.
I was stunned earlier today when I came across the following quote from Saudi Arabia's defense minister. Saudi Brigadier General Ahmed Asseri told Reuters that the 49 defense ministers that had gathered in Brussels a couple of weeks ago had openly discussed the need to conduct a large scale ground invasion of Syria...
An aide to Saudi Arabia's defense minister said on Monday, meanwhile, that defense ministers from the U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State had discussed the possibility of a Syrian ground incursion two weeks ago in Brussels.
"It was discussed at the political level but it wasn't discussed as a military mission," Saudi Brigadier General Ahmed Asseri told Reuters. "Once this is organized, and decided how many troops and how they will go and where they will go, we will participate in that."
When this meeting took place in Brussels earlier this month, it got next to no attention from the U.S. media, but it did get some attention in the international media. The following is an excerpt from an article about this meeting which appeared in the Guardian...
The US defense secretary has refused to rule out Saudi Arabia sending ground troops into Syria, but added that it was just one option and there were other ways the Saudis could contribute to the fight against Islamic State.
Ash Carter was speaking on the eve of a meeting of defense ministers from 49 countries at Nato headquarters to discuss how to step up efforts against Isis in Syria and Iraq.
He said the meeting was important "because we do need to accelerate the campaign and we have a very clear operational picture of how to do it. Now we just need the resources and the forces to fall in behind it."
It is certainly extremely unusual for so many defense ministers to gather in one place like that. Needless to say, they weren't just getting together for tea and cookies.
A few days after this meeting, Saudi Arabia announced the largest military exercise in the history of the Middle East. This exercise has been dubbed "Northern Thunder", and military units from 20 different nations are participating.
The Syrians, the Iranians and the Russians are concerned that this looks very much like an "invasion force", but the Saudis are denying this even though we know now that this is precisely what the "coalition partners" have been discussing.
And most Americans don't realize this, but the U.S. already has a limited number of troops on the ground inside Syria right now, and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is saying that up to 30,000 U.S. troops may be needed to create a "safe zone" in northern Syria.
In addition, fighters from Turkey continue to pour over the border, and mercenaries from Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region have been funneling into Syria for years.
So how in the world did we get to this point?
Well, back in 2011 the "Arab Spring" was overthrowing governments all over the Middle East. At that time, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies in conjunction with the U.S. government decided that it would be a wonderful opportunity to overthrow President Assad of Syria too. This move was spearheaded by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and it was hoped that by removing Assad the balance of power in the Middle East would be fundamentally transformed.
You see, President Assad is Alawite (a form of Shia Islam), and his government is allied with Iran. Syria is part of the "Shiite crescent" that stretches across the Middle East, but 74 percent of the population of Syria is actually Sunni. So the goal was to get rid of Assad, transform Syria into a full-blown Sunni nation, and cut off Iran from their Hezbollah allies in Lebanon.
The U.S. government, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies began organizing huge protests against Assad in Syria, and those protests rapidly became violent. The freedom fighters were armed, and civil war broke out.
And at first the plan was working. ISIS and other radical Sunni groups took large amounts of territory, including the largest city in all of Syria (Aleppo). It looked like they were going to be able to eventually conquer all of Syria and take down Assad. In the aftermath, the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies would have come in and helped set up an appropriately submissive Sunni puppet government.
But now the tide of the war has completely turned. President Assad has enlisted the help of Iran, Hezbollah and Shiite militias from Iraq. But most important of all, the Russians came to his aid, and Russian air power is absolutely decimating the Sunni jihadists that are trying to overthrow Assad. With the help of his allies, Assad has been rapidly reconquering Syria, and this has Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies in a panic.
If the war ended today, things would be far worse for Saudi Arabia and Turkey than if they had never even attempted to overthrow Assad in the first place. The Iranians would have far more influence in Syria than they did before, Hezbollah now has a major presence in Syria, and Russian aircraft would likely be permanently stationed at air bases inside the country. And of course Saudi Arabia and Turkey would have to deal with a neighboring government that now hates their guts because Assad knows that they have been trying to overthrow him for the past five years.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies have invested massive amounts of money and resources in this attempt to overthrow Assad. Now that their Sunni militias are being routed, either they have to walk away or they have to go in and do the job themselves.
Unfortunately, as I wrote about earlier today, Saudi Arabia and Turkey still appear to be quite determined to get rid of Assad.
So we should not expect this current "ceasefire" to last for long. In the coming days we should expect the western powers to accuse Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and the Syrian government of repeatedly violating the ceasefire, and these "violations" will be used as justification for whatever "the coalition" has planned next.
Sadly, whatever they have planned next could be the spark that plunges our planet into World War III.
WW3: Fighters from Turkey Are Pouring into Syria and Attacking Targets Despite the Ceasefire - By Michael Snyder - http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/ww3-fighters-from-turkey-are-pouring-into-syria-and-attacking-targets-despite-the-ceasefire
The ceasefire in Syria is a joke. Turkish military units continue to mass along the border, and militants are pouring across the border to attack targets in northern Syria. The Prime Minister of Turkey is now openly admitting that his government is supporting the militants that are trying to overthrow the Syrian government, and the Turkish government has also made it abundantly clear that they have no plans to stop shelling the Kurds on the other side of the border. So despite the "ceasefire", the truth is that the threat of World War 3 breaking out in the Middle East is greater than ever.
At times it is difficult to see the dividing line between the Turkish military and the radical jihadists that are hopping back and forth across the border with the full support of the Turkish government. Over the weekend, militants from Turkey that crossed over into northern Syria were supported by artillery fire from the Turkish military as they attacked a key Kurdish town...
In the Raqqa province, a group of some 100 fighters crossed into Syria from Turkey. The group later joined forces with other militants and attacked the Kurdish town of Tell Abyad.
The 250-strong group was supported by artillery fire from the Turkish territory, a fact that Russia said the US should explain. The Kurdish YPG militia fended off the attack, the report said.
This is an act of war, and yet the Obama administration does not seem to mind.
If Turkey will not even honor the ceasefire, what hope is there that anything will be able to stop them from acting so aggressively?
At this point, the Turks are not even pretending anymore. Just the other day, Turkey's Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu openly admitted that his nation is backing the militants that are trying to overthrow the Assad regime...
"How would they be able to defend themselves if there was no Turkish support of the Syrian people? ... If there's today a real moderate Syrian opposition, it's because of the Turkish support. If today the [Assad] regime isn't able to control all the territories [it's] because of Turkish and some other countries' support," he told Al-Jazeera earlier this week.
Obviously this ceasefire is not going to work. Turkey has not even pressed pause in their relentless campaign against the Assad regime and the Kurds.
The Turkish government has become absolutely obsessed with their neighbor to the south, and that is a very dangerous thing for the rest of the planet. The only way that Turkey, Saudi Arabia and their allies are going to be able to win the war now is to conduct a massive ground invasion of Syria. Such a move would lead to direct conflict with Iran, Hezbollah and the Russians, and since Turkey is a member of the NATO alliance, that could threaten to drag the U.S. and western Europe into the war as well. The following comes from the International Business Times...
The wider consequences of any disagreement between Ankara and Moscow could lead to a standoff between Russia and NATO. Jen Stoltenberg, secretary general of the Brussels-based organization, said in late 2015 that it would be prepared to defend the member state of Turkey if it were attacked by Russia.
"NATO will defend you, NATO is on the ground, NATO is ready," Stoltenberg said in the aftermath of repeated breaches of Turkish airspace by Russian jets and just one month before Ankara shot down a Russian jet in November.
The 28-country alliance is bound by Article 5 of its treaty to collectively defend its members. "Collective defense means that an attack against one ally is considered as an attack against all allies," the article states.
Saudi Arabia does not appear ready to back down either.
The Saudis continue to reiterate their position that either Assad must go peacefully or he will be removed by force...
Saudi Arabia is prepared to send troops to Syria if President Bashar Assad doesn't resign and leave his war-torn nation peacefully. Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir warned Sunday that his country will take military action if Syria violates the terms of a ceasefire agreement.
"I believe that abiding by the truce would be an important indicator of the seriousness to reach a peaceful solution to the Syrian crisis that would include setting up a transitional council and the transfer of power from Bashar to this council," he said during a joint press conference with his Danish counterpart Kristian Jensen in the Saudi capital of Riyadh.
Al-Jubeir warned that Saudi Arabia has prepared a "Plan B." If "the coalition decided to send ground troops into Syria, Saudi Arabia is ready to contribute," he said.
The goal since 2011 has been to get rid of Assad so that Syria could become a full-fledged Sunni nation with a Sunni government.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies have poured enormous amounts of money and resources into this conflict, and they don't appear to be willing to walk away now that the tide of the war has turned. In fact, how the Saudis have been behaving lately has been causing a tremendous amount of anxiety in the Middle East...
Saudi Arabia's recent actions have caused a great deal of anxiety within its region. On February 4, a military spokesman suggested that Saudi Arabia was ready to send troops ground troops to fight ISIS in Syria. A week later Saudi Arabia announced that it will send combat aircraft and soldiers to Turkey to participate in the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS.
Three days later the Saudis launched "Northern Thunder," described as the "largest military exercise in the history of the Middle East." Participants from 20 countries sent troops to the maneuvers run over three weeks in Hafar al Batin in northern Saudi Arabia, not far from the Iraqi and Kuwaiti border. According to a Saudi media outlet, some 350,000 troops were expected to participate in the maneuvers.
So if Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies are preparing for war, then what is the purpose of the ceasefire?
Well, first of all the goal was to stop the bleeding. The Sunni militants were losing ground steadily, and this pause will enable them to regroup and get resupplied.
Secondly, this pause in the action gives "the coalition" time to move forces into position for a potential ground invasion of Syria.
But more than anything else, this ceasefire seems to be a trap. It appears to be inevitable that the U.S. and other western powers will accuse Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and the Syrian government of breaking the ceasefire, thus providing "legal justification" for "the coalition" to militarily intervene.
Watch developments in Syria very closely. Many had hoped that this ceasefire would bring the five-year civil war to an end, but the truth is that it could just be setting the stage for something far, far bigger.
Analysis: Iran, ISIS Likely to Unite for WWIII - By: Hana Levi Julian - http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/analysis-iran-isis-likely-to-unite-for-wwiii/2016/02/28/
The other question is how long until someone strikes the spark that ignites the conflagration -- the region is already in chaos.
Israeli military analysts are now beginning to prepare top officials, who are in turn beginning to prepare the nation, for what eventually may become the start of World War III.
Most analysts still believe the Syrian crisis is a sectarian conflict between the Sunni, Shi'a and Alawite Muslims. But that time is long gone.
A cataclysmic clash of civilizations is taking place in Syria, one that a number of nations have patiently awaited for decades.
Turkey, so deeply invested in the glorious history of its Ottoman Empire period, would find great satisfaction in stretching its influence with a modern-day "Turkish Islamic Union" that might embrace like-minded nations in the region and perhaps also beyond.
Da'esh, as it is known in the Middle East and which in English calls itself the "Islamic State" (known by others as ISIS or ISIL) is rapidly stretching its influence to build a worldwide Sunni caliphate. It began as a splinter group from the Al Qaeda terrorist organization, and then morphed into the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (hence "ISIS") - but at last count had successfully recruited more than 41 other regional Muslim terrorist organizations to its cause from around the world on nearly every continent.
And then there is the Islamic Republic of Iran, a Shi'ite Muslim nation, which is extending its tentacles as rapidly throughout the world as Da'esh, but far more insidiously and certainly more dangerously. If in this world one might define any nation today as Amalek, that ice-cold, black-hearted evil that first picks off the weakest of the Jewish nation, it is Iran, which has quietly extended its influence and control farther and more deeply than any other enemy Israel has ever had. Wealthy, patient, smiling and calculating, Iran acquires new allies each year, even among those Israel once counted as friends. Meanwhile, Iranian officials never forget to keep the home fires burning, to stir the pot and keep it simmering, and always to nurture the various conflicts at home in the Middle East.
This past week, Iran announced the money it donates to families of Arab "martyrs" who murder Israelis will be paid via its own special charity organization, and not through the Palestinian Authority government.
But Tehran has yet to reveal the details of exactly how it intends to pay.
Instead, a high-ranked government official simply made an announcement this weekend saying Iran did not trust the Ramallah government, driving a deeper wedge already dividing the PA's ruling Fatah faction from Gaza's ruling Hamas terror organization - Iran's proxy group.
Hamas has been planting sleeper cells and budding regional headquarters, however, throughout the PA-controlled areas of Judea and Samaria, and it is clear the group's next goal is an attempt to wrest control of those two regions from the PA, thus completing Iran's takeover of the PLO - the PA's umbrella organization and liaison to the United Nations.
Money is always helpful in such an enterprise, and Iran has recently enjoyed a massive infusion of cash that came courtesy of the United States and five other world powers after sanctions were lifted last month as part of last July's nuclear deal.
Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Mohammed Fath'ali announced last Wednesday that Iran would pay Arab families for each "martyr" who died attacking Israelis in Jerusalem and each Arab family whose home was demolished by Israel after one of its occupants murdered Israelis in a terror attack.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani last week underlined Tehran's continued strong support for the wave of terror against Israel.
"The Islamic Republic supports the Palestinian Intifada and all Palestinian groups in their fight against the Zionist regime. We should turn this into the main issue in the Muslim world," Larijani said in a meeting with a number of "resistance" groups in Tehran, FARS reported Sunday (Feb 28).
But it is clear that Iran is not content solely with a takeover of the PLO.
Tehran has its eye on a much wider goal, now more clearly than ever the resurrection of an updated Persian Empire - in modern parlance military analysts refer to it as an "Axis of Evil" - in much the same manner that Sunni Da'esh (ISIS) is single-mindedly pursuing its goal of rebuilding a worldwide caliphate.
Iranian forces via proxies have already managed to involve themselves in what once were domestic affairs in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Israel, Cuba, Mexico, the United States, Afghanistan, Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, Qatar, Turkey and numerous other nations.
Larijani has at last proclaimed officially that Iran doesn't differentiate between Shiites and Sunnis since they share many commonalities, adding that Tehran "has supported the Palestinian nation (although they are Sunnis) for the past 37 years."
The remark is significant in that Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps and Lebanese Shi'ite Hezbollah guerrillas - another Iranian proxy - are fighting Sunni opposition forces in Syria on behalf of President Bashar al-Assad. Iranian forces are fighting the Sunni Muslim Da'esh (ISIS) terror organization that seized a significant percentage of territory in Syria.
But south of Israel, Iran's proxy Hamas, a Sunni Muslim group, has been providing material and technical support to the same Da'esh - but its "Sinai Province" terror group in the Sinai Peninsula.
Here we finally see that Iran is willing to adapt and support terror wherever it can be found, as long as it meets two of three criteria: (1) it furthers its goal to destabilize the region, (2) in the process it works towards the annihilation of Israel, and/or (3) will contribute towards conquest and influence to reach the goal of an ultimate renewed, updated Persian Empire.
How long then until Iran connects the two dots and simply arranges a meeting between its own Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the leader of Da'esh, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi? Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal will likely be invited for dessert ...
Is nuclear Armageddon more likely than ever? - http://theweek.com/articles/608163/nuclear-armageddon-more-likely-than-ever
New weapons, unstable nations, and terrorism are raising the nuclear stakes. Is a doomsday attack more likely? Here's everything you need to know about the new nuclear arms race:
How many nuclear weapons are there?
About 16,000. Russia and the U.S. have 93 percent of them, with more than 7,000 each; the rest are split between France, China, the U.K., Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. The global stockpile is much smaller than it was at the height of the Cold War: In 1986, Russia and the U.S. had 64,000 nukes pointed at each other - enough to devastate every square inch of the entire globe. But there are growing fears that nuclear catastrophe is becoming increasingly likely. The established nuclear powers are modernizing their arsenals with smaller, more sophisticated weapons. The unstable regime in nuclear-armed North Korea is trying to develop a hydrogen bomb. ISIS, which is richer and more ambitious than any previous terrorist group, is trying to get hold of a nuclear device. The Doomsday Clock, the symbolic countdown to Armageddon, was last year moved from five minutes to midnight to three minutes. "We are facing nuclear dangers today that are in fact more likely to erupt into a nuclear conflict than during the Cold War," says former Secretary of Defense William Perry.
What's the biggest worry?
Probably North Korea, since it's run by the erratic, belligerent dictator Kim Jong-Un. The Hermit Kingdom carried out its fourth nuclear test in January, and claimed it was a hydrogen bomb. Atomic bombs create their explosive energy solely through nuclear fission, while H-bombs rely on nuclear fusion, the same chain reaction that drives the Sun. This makes them vastly more powerful than atomic weapons: A-bombs tend to be measured in kilotons (equivalent to 1,000 tons of TNT); H-bombs in megatons (1 million tons of TNT). Nuclear scientists are unconvinced that North Korea's underground test was a thermonuclear weapon, based on the shock waves it produced. But the country is believed to have built a 10-kiloton atomic weapon - slightly smaller than the Hiroshima bomb, but enough to destroy a city. The regime already has the capability to strike South Korea, Japan, and other nearby countries with nuclear weapons; its recent launch of a satellite into orbit, which was widely seen as an intercontinental ballistic missile test, suggested that it could soon reach the U.S.
What are other powers doing?
Arming up. Russia's defense budget has increased by over 50 percent since 2007 - a third of it is devoted to nuclear weapons. China is increasing its warhead stocks and developing nuclear-armed submarines. Pakistan and India's own nuclear standoff shows no sign of cooling. President Obama, who in 2009 pledged to try to create a "world without nuclear weapons," has proposed spending $1 trillion over the next 30 years updating America's nuclear arsenal, replacing 12 nuclear-armed submarines, 450 land-based missiles, and hundreds of nuclear bombers. Some of the weapons in development are very controversial.
Why is that?
They're becoming smaller and more advanced, and thus more likely to be used. Last fall, the U.S. Air Force tested its first precision-guided atom bomb, which can be remotely guided like a cruise missile to zero in on small targets. Its explosive power can be dialed up or down, from 50 kilotons to 0.3 kilotons. Critics argue that nuclear weapons should never be used as battlefield weapons - only as a deterrent. "What going smaller does," says retired Gen. James Cartwright, "is make the weapon more thinkable." Russia's new weapons are also causing concerns. Last November, the Kremlin leaked plans for a nuclear torpedo designed to sneak under traditional nuclear defenses and hit cities or military installations along the coasts.
Could terrorists acquire a nuke?
It's possible. Between 1995 and 2012, the International Atomic Energy Agency catalogued 2,200 attempts to steal or smuggle uranium. ISIS's propaganda magazine has suggested buying a nuclear weapon in Pakistan and smuggling it into the U.S. Nuclear experts warn that an improvised device could be fitted into an SUV-size shipping container. Ports and airports are fitted with radiation sensors, but they only work at very close range. Another potential threat is a "dirty bomb" - a regular explosive device that would spray radioactive material over a blast zone, exposing thousands of people to radiation and turning an entire city into an uninhabitable ghost town. Authorities in Iraq are now searching for a sizable quantity of "highly dangerous" radioactive material stolen last year, which theoretically could wind up in the hands of ISIS.
Is a nuke-free world possible?
Not in the foreseeable future. Once rogue nations develop nuclear weapons, they're extremely unlikely to relinquish them. "The reason you attacked Afghanistan is because they don't have nukes," a North Korean diplomat told American negotiators in 2005. "That is why we will never give up ours." For similar reasons, none of the nine nuclear powers will surrender its weapons. The nuclear genie was let out of the bottle in Hiroshima in 1945, and it will probably never be forced back in.
Monitoring nuclear wannabes
Any nation seeking to develop nuclear weapons has to test them - and the good news is that it has become impossible to conduct a nuclear test in secret. With a huge network of seismic stations and underwater hydroacoustic centers, the international organization responsible for enforcing the ban on testing can detect and measure a nuclear explosion anywhere in the world. But uncovering the construction of a nuke is another matter. Satellites play a big part, but they're far from infallible. Syria hid a nuclear reactor by assembling it in a building with a lowered floor, which from the outside looked too small to house such a facility. (The reactor was discovered and destroyed by Israel in 2007, before it could be completed.) Once a program has been detected, advances in nuclear forensics - the analysis of air and soil for radioactive particles - have made it very hard to cover up previous activity. "You can detect individual atoms," says Andreas Persbo of Vertic, the international agreement verification think tank. "It's virtually impossible to hide that you've been doing nuclear activity in a room."
Russia steps up its 'economic war' in Middle East -
By Emre Gurkan Abay - http://news.videonews.us/russia-steps-up-its-economic-war-in-middle-east-0148903.html
Russia aims to increase economic presence in many Middle Eastern countries, to plug gap created by US withdrawal from region
Russia's increase of its military activities in the Middle East is swelling in parallel with its economic presence, however this is seen as a short-term attempt to benefit from the U.S.' withdrawal from the region.
Since the start of the crisis in Ukraine in late 2013, Russia has been facing sanctions from many major Western powers as a consequence of its actions in Ukraine.
The country has been trying to find new markets to export its products, particularly with its vast sources of energy products.
In an attempt to cope with the economic crisis, it faced in the last two years, Russia now aims to increase its halal food product exports and energy infrastructure projects, along with its soaring supply of security and military equipment to the Middle East.
"This looks more like another shallow, short-term attempt to demonstrate that Moscow does not need the West rather than a viable long-term strategy or viable relationship," Dr. Agnia Grigas, an independent energy and policy consultant, and the author of Beyond Crimea, told Anadolu Agency.
Noting that Russia's agricultural and food sector is underperforming, Grigas said it would be surprising if Russia managed in the near term to successfully build up significant production of halal foods for exports.
"While some Middle Eastern countries' regimes may support Russia's efforts to bring 'stability' to Syria, their longer terms interests face tensions and contradictions," the expert said.
According to Russia's Ministry of Economic Development, the growth in agricultural production in the country in 2015 was only 1.1 percent against 3.7 percent in 2014.
Another expert, Dr. Murhaf Jouejati, a scholar from Washington-based Middle East Institute, stressed that Moscow is seizing the opportunity to return to the Middle East, taking advantage of the evident U.S. retreat from the region under the Obama administration.
Emphasizing that U.S.-Saudi relations began souring since the collapse of the Hosni Mubarak regime in Egypt and with the recent nuclear deal with Iran, Jouejati said that the opening of Saudi Arabia and other like-minded states' markets to Russian goods could be interpreted as a message to Washington.
"Those countries are also putting their eggs in more than one basket," he said, stressing that they do not want to rely too much on U.S. support.
Saudi officials vehemently voiced their support for former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak during the 2011 Egyptian revolution, while former Saudi ambassador to the U.S. prince Bandar bin Sultan criticized the nuclear deal with Iran and said it was a replica of the deal made between former President Bill Clinton and North Korea.
Justin Dergin, a Middle East energy expert at Oxford University, said while Russia's military efforts in the Middle East run on parallel tracks with economic interests and complement one another; it was not the driver behind economic interests in the region.
"Russian military efforts in the region have much more to do with countering what Russia considers the Western destabilization strategy internationally," Dergin said, adding that "for instance, the West supported the Syrian opposition for the goal of regime change, which Russia considers as a primary threat and could be used against them in the future."
Underlining the parallel relationship between Russia's stalwart actions in the region to counter Daesh, as well as its support of its allies in a time of conflict with renewed economic collaborative projects, Dergin said their role is viewed favorably across the region, despite Russia's support of the Syrian government.
"Russian influence in the region is at the highest it has been since the downfall of the Soviet Union, and while American weaponry is still the most desired in the region, there has been an uptick in Russian arms sales that now account for approximately 30 percent of the total arms purchases by Middle Eastern governments," the expert highlighted.
According to a recent report by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Russia entered the list of the world's biggest arms exporters, selling 25 percent of the total amount of weapons sold in the last five years.
Imports of military equipment in the Middle East increased by 61 percent in the last five years, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Egypt.
Iran uses Syrian truce to deploy hundreds of Palestinian terrorists on Golan border - http://www.debka.com/article/25264/Iran-uses-Syrian-truce-to-deploy-hundreds-of-Palestinian-terrorists-on-Golan-border-
Under cover of the Syrian ceasefire that went into effect Saturday, Feb. 27, and the Russian air umbrella, Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps finally managed to secretly install hundreds of armed Palestinian terrorists on the Syrian-Israeli border face-to-face with the IDF's Golan positions.
This is reported exclusively by debkafile's military and intelligence sources.
These Palestinians belong to Al-Sabirin, a new terrorist organization the Iranian Guards and Hezbollah are building in the refugee camps of Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. Their agents clandestinely recruited the new terrorists from among young Palestinians who fled the Yarmouk refugee camp outside Damascus and sought refuge in Lebanon. Hezbollah organized their return to Syria through south Lebanon - but not before training and arming them for penetration deep inside Israel to carry out mass-casualty assaults on IDF positions, highways and civilians.
So Iran and Hezbollah have finally been able to achieve one of the most cherished goals of their integration in the Syria civil war, namely, to bring a loyal terrorist force right up to Israel's border.
Israel's military planners went to extreme lengths to prevent this happening. Last December, Samir Quntar, after being assigned by Tehran and Hezbollah to establish a Palestinian-Druze terror network on the Golan, was assassinated in Damascus.
Twelve months before that, on Jan. 18, an Israeli air strike hit an Iranian-Syrian military party surveying the Golan in search of jumping-off locations for Hezbollah terror squads to strike across the border against Israeli targets. The two senior officers in the party, Iranian General Allah-Dadi and Hizballah's Jihad Mughniyeh, were killed.
The hubbub in the run-up to the Syrian truce, coupled with Russia's protective military presence, finally gave the Islamic Republic and its Lebanese proxy the chance to outfox Israeli intelligence and secretly bring forward a terrorist force to striking range against Israel
This discovery was one of the causes of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's urgent phone call to President Vladimir Putin Wednesday, Feb. 24, two days before the ceasefire went into effect. He reminded the Russian leader of the understandings they had reached regarding the deployment of pro-Iranian terrorists on the Syrian-Israeli border. He also sent emissaries to Moscow to intercede with Russian officials.
Putin's answers to Israel's demarches were vague and evasive, on the lines of a promise to look into their complaints.
He also tried to fob Netanyahu off by inviting President Reuven Rivlin for a state visit to Russia. Putin promised to use that occasion for a solemn Russian pledge of commitment to upholding Israel's security in a tone that would leave Tehran in no doubt of Moscow support for the Jewish state.
The Rivlin visit has been scheduled for March 16.
But it is clear that the prime minister and defense minister Moshe Ya'alon were too slow to pick up on the new terrorist menace Iran had parked on Israel's border. Now their hands are tied, say debkafile's sources. An IDF operation to evict the pro-Iranian Palestinian Al-Sabirin network from the Syrian Golan, before it digs in, would lay Israel open to the charge of jeopardizing, or even sabotaging, the inherently fragile Syrian ceasefire initiated jointly by the US and Russia.
Hezbollah Claims a 'Nuclear Option' in Tense Standoff with Israel - Neri Zilber - http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/03/hezbollah-claims-a-nuclear-option-in-tense-standoff-with-israel.html
The threat of devastation on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon conflict is now enormous. Does that mean no more wars?
"Lebanon has a nuclear bomb," Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah declared in a televised address to supporters of the Shia militant group in Beirut last month. "This is no exaggeration," he went on, before admitting that it was, in fact, a slight exaggeration. "We don't really have a nuclear bomb," he said, laughing-rather, the threat was that "several missiles" launched from Lebanon onto ammonia storage depots in the Israeli port city of Haifa would "lead to the same impact as a nuclear bomb." Citing a previous Israeli study, Nasrallah claimed that blowing up 15,000 tons of the toxic gas in a densely populated region of 800,000 people would lead to tens of thousands of casualties.
In Israel, Hezbollah's latest threat dominated national headlines, underlining the tense cold war going on between the two old foes. Like the historic global battle between East and West, this more localized Middle Eastern version sees both Israel and Hezbollah preparing tenaciously for the next round of hostilities, a hot war of untold destruction, while maintaining the present nervy standoff and engaging carefully, when need be, in contained skirmishes.
"The missiles of the resistance cover each and every spot in occupied Palestine," Nasrallah threatened, touting his "nuclear" option. Yet in line with classic deterrence theory, he went on to add: "We do not want war. This kind of war is not part of our strategy, but we must be ready for it, in order to prevent it and in order to be able to win it, if it takes place."
Such a statement perfectly encapsulates Israel's current strategic thinking regarding Hezbollah as well.
Nasrallah's boast about his group's expansive missile capabilities is not mere bluster. Haifa's ammonia depots are just one of many potential targets inside Israel. Hezbollah's rocket and missile arsenal, estimated at 150,000, is believed to now hold precision guidance systems-putting not only Haifa's heavy industries but the Israel Defense Forces' (IDF) Kiryah Tel Aviv headquarters, the Knesset parliament building in Jerusalem, and the nuclear reactor in Dimona in harm's way.
A day after Nasrallah spoke, IDF chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot admitted that Hezbollah was Israel's biggest threat and the "organization with the most significant capabilities" to inflict harm on the country. Indeed, in private discussions IDF officers betray a grudging respect for Hezbollah, comparing other armed groups-Hamas, ISIS, etc.-to the Lebanese militia and finding them all wanting.
Nearly everything Eisenkot has done since assuming the top military post one year ago appears to have been done with Hezbollah in mind.
The IDF is in the process of implementing a new five-year strategic plan called "Gideon" that views sub-state armed groups like Hezbollah as Israel's main military threat-above conventional armies or even the Iranian nuclear program.
As part of Gideon, the IDF is restructuring its force posture, one element of which was the formation of an elite Commando Brigade for more agile, penetrating attacks against guerrilla groups. The Israeli Air Force, as the Jerusalem Post and others have reported, has been developing more "efficient" precision-strike capabilities that can deliver thousands of bombs onto targets daily- to exactly combat Hezbollah's widely dispersed missile storage facilities and command and control positions. More revealing still: For the past several years IDF infantry and armor brigades have been undergoing intensive training exercises, with an eye to a major ground offensive inside Lebanon.
Just what that ground operation would look like recently was described for The Daily Beast by a senior IDF officer with responsibility for Lebanon, who spoke on condition of anonymity, according to IDF protocol.
The difference between the last major Israel-Hezbollah confrontation in 2006, when Hezbollah held out for weeks against the once-seemingly invincible IDF, and the next conflict, the officer explained, "Will be the difference between an operation and a war: 2006 was an operation and we didn't use all of our power. Next time it won't just be planes flying around." (In 2006, Israel initially tried to win the fight without putting boots on the ground.) This time, said the officer, "Ground forces will be maneuvering into southern Lebanon, wherever Hezbollah is-we will use all of our power to destroy Hezbollah militarily."
Of course, in the 2006 war, Israel did belatedly launch an ill-defined ground campaign. In the next conflict, the IDF seems to be promising, a major ground offensive likely tallying several divisions is a given.
Based on past campaigns, whether against Hezbollah in Lebanon or Hamas in the Gaza Strip, a ground component is likely the only way to stem the rate of enemy fire-via rockets and missiles-targeting Israel's civilian population. "Indirect fire" it's called, a brutally effective, and cynical, asymmetric warfighting strategy meant to sabotage Israeli civilian life while almost welcoming harsh Israeli airstrikes that usually bring with them high civilian casualties, since organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas are known to operate among their own civilian populations.
On the eve of the 2006 conflict Hezbollah had an estimated 12,000 to 18,000 rockets in its arsenal, and was able to keep firing at Israel for the duration of the 34-day war. Hamas in 2014 had an estimated arsenal of 10,000 rockets and was able to keep firing at Israel for nearly two months. Hezbollah has now dramatically upped the ante, with more sophisticated weapons systems and an arsenal, as mentioned, of 150,000 rockets including those precision missiles. A recent report in the Israeli Yediot Ahronoth daily stated that, in the next conflict, Hezbollah could likely maintain a rate of fire of over 1,000 rockets and missiles-per day. It's unclear what kind of damage such firepower can wreak on Israel (and what damage Israel will feel it has to wreak in response), and how Israel's advanced missile defense systems, operational since 2011, will cope with such a deluge.
Tellingly, it was precisely Eisenkot, in a prior position as commander of the IDF Northern Command, who gave rise to the "Dahiya Doctrine," a strategy intended to deter Hezbollah aggressiveness through the promise of "non-proportional" devastation being brought to bear on the group's south Beirut stronghold. This, along with the above promises of a major ground offensive, is Israel's own version of deterrence theory, a threat of unchecked war in order to avoid war.
Neither side wants a major escalation at present, in particular Hezbollah, given its direct involvement in the Syrian civil war-a major constraining factor for the organization, according to IDF assessments.
Yet as the senior IDF officer pointed out, "Hezbollah is organizing and preparing for the next round-checking Israeli responses and border obstacles, patrolling the border, building new combat posts, training its forces deep inside Lebanon" and, of course, there are the missiles.
The officer was, indeed, "impressed" by Hezbollah's ability to do all this while so deeply committed to the Syrian front-a commitment, he added, that may give the group tangible small-unit offensive capabilities to take the next fight into Israel itself, perhaps through underground attack tunnels similar to those used by Hamas in Gaza.
But the Syrian conflict has also opened a new front in the Israel-Hezbollah cold war, whereby Hezbollah-along with its Iranian patron-has used the anarchy to establish terror cells among the Druze villages in the northern Golan Heights bordering Israel.
Hezbollah assistance has helped the Assad regime retain this small pocket of influence; according to Israel, the largest number of Syrian rocket and IED attacks on its citizens and soldiers come from this area of the Golan.
Israel, in turn, has responded with its own version of proxy war, reportedly targeting senior Hezbollah and Iranian operatives responsible for the Golan front at least twice via airstrikes in the past year. More interesting still, Israeli officialdom concedes that it provides Druze villages on the Syrian frontier with "humanitarian assistance," possibly beyond the medical aid that has been widely publicized. As the IDF officer stated cryptically, "The wishes of the local people are key-they want to maintain daily life, and we want to keep terror away from the Israeli border."
Given the volatility of this Syrian front-including multiple reported Israeli airstrikes on suspected Hezbollah weapons shipments-it's not a surprise to hear from the IDF officer, "Even a very small spark can start a confrontation."
Hezbollah has so far been careful not to respond to the above losses with deadlier force than it deems absolutely necessary, precisely so as to avoid a wider war.
Israel, too, doesn't officially take credit for any strikes inside Syria, allowing the Shia militia some plausible deniability. But this is a high-stakes game with great potential for strategic miscalculation. The recent decision by Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies to pull out of Lebanon and brand Hezbollah a terrorist organization in fact opens the door for it and Iran to establish even greater control there, and may bring a period of increased tensions with Israel. As was the case in the East-West Cold War, a local incident could undo the best-laid deterrence doctrines.
Based on the serious preparations underway and firepower available to both sides, the next Israel-Hezbollah war holds the potential to be the most destructive Arab-Israeli confrontation since the 1973 October War. Hezbollah might not have a real nuclear bomb, and Nasrallah might still be laughing for the cameras, but a whiff of mutually assured destruction still hovers over the lives of citizens in both Israel and Lebanon.
Hamas has replenished its rocket arsenals; Israeli officials say - By Avi Issacharoff - http://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-has-replenished-its-rocket-arsenals-israeli-officials-say/
Gaza's terrorist rulers have as many rockets as before 2014 war, but they are of lower quality; 40,000 Gazans said involved in 'military wing'
Roughly a year and a half after the end of Operation Protective Edge, Israeli officials believe that Hamas has replenished its rocket supply, reaching the number of rockets that it had before the operation began.
At the start of the summer 2014 conflict, Hamas had approximately 12,000 rockets of various ranges, including long-range rockets. It fired approximately 4,600 rockets during the 50-day war, and roughly 4,000 more were hit from the air in Israeli bombardments. That left the terror group with about one-third of its original arsenal.
Since late August 2014, Hamas has worked intensively to regain its military capabilities - replenishing the rocket arsenals, and restoring its terror-tunnel network.
Israeli officials now assess that Hamas has roughly the number of rockets that it had in June 2014. A major difference, though, is that most of the rockets are relatively short range and of lower quality, the officials believe.
On the strength of the experience it gained during the war, Hamas has also been stockpiling mortar shells, which inflicted heavy damage to property and life in communities on Gaza's periphery and on IDF troops stationed around Gaza.
The new rockets are mostly locally produced - due to the closing of the tunnels that ran between Sinai and the Gaza Strip and the difficulty Hamas faces in smuggling standard rockets and weapons into Gaza. The locally made rockets are regarded as inferior, partly because smaller quantities of explosive materials are making it into Gaza due to the tunnel closures.
Overall, therefore, the officials said, Hamas has restored its rocket quantities, but the quality and precision of the new rockets are significantly lower.
The Hamas military wing is still relentlessly seeking to smuggle in various materials to produce improved rockets and other weaponry, the officials said.
Items such as steel cables, which can be used to build tunnels; and polyester, which can be used in rocket production, were intercepted by Israel at the Kerem Shalom border crossing in recent weeks.
Israeli officials believe that roughly 40,000 people belong to Hamas's military wing and its various offshoots in the Gaza Strip - including a civilian police force. Some 20,000 of these Gazans are in the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, and about 1,000 are involved in the tunnels project.
On the strength of the experience it gained during the war, Hamas has also been stockpiling mortar shells, which inflicted heavy damage to property and life in communities on Gaza's periphery and on IDF troops stationed around Gaza.
The new rockets are mostly locally produced - due to the closing of the tunnels that ran between Sinai and the Gaza Strip and the difficulty Hamas faces in smuggling standard rockets and weapons into Gaza. The locally made rockets are regarded as inferior, partly because smaller quantities of explosive materials are making it into Gaza due to the tunnel closures.
Overall, therefore, the officials said, Hamas has restored its rocket quantities, but the quality and precision of the new rockets are significantly lower.
The Hamas military wing is still relentlessly seeking to smuggle in various materials to produce improved rockets and other weaponry, the officials said.
Items such as steel cables, which can be used to build tunnels; and polyester, which can be used in rocket production, were intercepted by Israel at the Kerem Shalom border crossing in recent weeks.
Israeli officials believe that roughly 40,000 people belong to Hamas's military wing and its various offshoots in the Gaza Strip - including a civilian police force. Some 20,000 of these Gazans are in the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, and about 1,000 are involved in the tunnels project.
Hezbollah launches Chemicals & Dirty Bombs program at secret Syrian site - http://www.debka.com/article/25268/Hizballah-launches-Chemicals-Dirty-Bombs-program-at-secret-Syrian-site
The southwestern town of Zabadani, 30 km west of Damascus, is a ghost town, depopulated by five years of Syrian war ravages, except for one sign of life - or rather death. Since December, Hezbollah has enclosed this once attractive tourist resort, strategically located on the Damascus-Beirut highway, into a heavily fortified ex territoria enclave whose high walls conceal the terrorist group's new program for the development of weapons of mass destruction. This is disclosed for the first time by debkafile's military and intelligence sources.
Most of the facilities for the research and development of chemical weapons and dirty bombs are sunk below the surface of the secret 2.5 sq. km site.
Syrian and Iranian engineers and technicians are developing the chemical weapons for Hizballah's arsenal, and foreign experts were hired from outside the Middle East to help build radioactive weapons. They are kept out of sight in on-site accommodation at Zabadani.
A telltale sign that the Shiite terrorist organization was actively pursuing a radioactive bomb program - and which prompted our investigation - was dropped in a speech given by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Feb. 16.
He boasted that a pair of Hezbollah rockets falling on the Israeli city of Haifa would cause a catastrophe equivalent to a "nuclear bomb" attack. He elaborated on this: "An Israeli expert had said that Haifa's residents fear a deadly attack on the ammonia storage tanks which contain more than 15,000 tons of this gas. That would lead to the deaths of tens of thousands of Israelis and affect another 800,000," he declared.
"This would be exactly like a nuclear bomb and we can say that Lebanon today has a nuclear bomb, seeing as any rocket that might hit these tanks is capable of creating a nuclear bomb effect," Nasrallah said.
When someone like the Hezbollah terrorist chief drops four references to a nuclear bomb in as many sentences, ending with the boast that "Lebanon today has nuclear bomb," it must be presumed that he is crowing over some sort of nuclear device in hand.
It may not be an actual atom bomb - which would call for multi-million dollar investment, expertise and time, "only" a "dirty bomb" (essentially a conventional bomb mixed with radioactive material). That too could cause massive damage to Haifa's chemical industry, resulting in a high death toll, runaway panic and major disruption - the perfect weapon for terrorists.
Israeli officials decline to discuss Hezbollah's new WMD program, but it certainly raises hard questions for Moscow and the commanding Russian military presence in Syria. It is hard to believe that the Shiite terrorists can develop game-changing poison chemicals and dirty bombs in the heart of Syria, without Russian intelligence noticing what was going on. Does that mean that Vladimir Putin is amenable to his air force providing it with cover?
Why the War in Syria Is Only the Beginning - By Emmanuel Karagiannis - http://www.newsweek.com/syrian-crisis-reaching-end-game-emmanuel-karagiannis-431520
The Fog of War that Prussian military strategist Carl von Clausewitz famously mentioned in his breakthrough book On War (1832) is visible in the Middle East. In 2011, when the Arab Spring reached Syria, most western policymakers and analysts underestimated the resilience of President Assad's regime, mistakenly predicting a quick defeat of his forces. Their assumption was that Assad would suffer the same fate as the former Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi and become yet another hated dictator overthrown by his people.
The regime, which is based in the capital city of Damascus, has succeeded in mobilizing certain factions such as the minority Islamic sect the Alewites, Christians and urban-based Sunnis to fight for its survival. These communities do not see much of a future in a post-Assad Syria and will fight to the end. The Syrian regime has also capitalized on its long-standing relationship with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and Iran. As a result, Lebanese Shia fighters and Iranian Revolutionary Guards are leading the fight against the Syrian armed opposition. The Iranian security agencies have also recruited large numbers of Afghan and Pakistani Shias to fight in Syria. In short, the Syrian regime has outsourced the war to Shia allies who have huge human resources. Further support for the Assad regime comes from Russia, which is committed to keeping the president in power and sees it as a test of their credibility.
This war has become a regional crisis involving great powers such as Russia and the U.S., neighboring countries-Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon, Israel), semi-autonomous militias (Hezbollah)-and jihadi groups such as ISIS, and al-Qaeda. In a conflict with so many foreign and domestic actors peace negotiations are likely to be protracted.
A partial victory seems assured for the Damascus-Moscow-Tehran axis. The Assad regime has almost reestablished control over important urban centers such as Aleppo. The opposition forces are losing ground and are demoralized. Thanks to the Russian planes and the highly experienced Shia fighters, Damascus will participate in the future negotiations with an advantage. But it will be foolish of Assad to expect a return to the previous status quo. If the principle of borders' inviolability and territorial integrity is to be respected, the Syrian state can only survive as another Bosnia: one country on the map but in reality divided into different entities.
There is a new awareness among foreign powers that the war cannot continue on the same devastating scale. The US and Russia, who dominated the Geneva peace talks which led to the first major ceasefire, are keen to stop the Syria crisis spiraling out of control and sparking a Turkish invasion of northern Syria. While it is an exaggeration to claim that the U.S. and Russia are negotiating a new "Sykes-Picot agreement" (the original secret 1916 pact between the British and the French led to the partition of the Ottoman Empire), a new balance of power is clearly in the making in the Middle East. Syria is likely to remain partly under Russian influence, with the U.S. maintaining a strong presence in Iraq.
In this scenario, the biggest loser will be Turkey. Erdogan has envisioned a hegemonic role for post-Kemalist Turkey in the Middle East. The ongoing Turkish assault on Syrian Kurds is a desperate move to save the opposition forces in northern Syria and stop the Kurds' drive to statehood. However, the Turkish strategy is bound to fail because the Kurds are America's best and only friends in the region. They also enjoy strong support from Russia and Israel. If the Turkish assault continues, the large Kurdish diaspora in Western Europe will mobilize and European governments will feel the heat. The refugee crisis has already widened the gap between Brussels and Ankara, leaving Erdogan's Turkey more isolated than ever.
The new dynamics of the Middle East have created the preconditions for the righting of an historic injustice against the Kurds-the world's largest stateless people. Kurdish autonomy in Syria and Iraq will lead, sooner or later, to full independence. If Kosovo and South Sudan are sovereign states, why not Kurdistan? Ironically, the establishment of a Kurdish state could sow the seeds for a new conflict where former enemies will become allies. Turkey may ally itself with Iran (which has its own restive Kurdish minority) to stop the new state from becoming the nucleus for a greater Kurdistan. A mini-war between pro-Assad forces and Syrian Kurds is also a possibility when their tactical alliance is over.
Middle Eastern politics are defined by instability and shifting alliances. The lack of natural borders and the predominance of zero-sum thinking, where one state's loss is another's gain, have reinforced mutual suspicion and mistrust. Today's war in Syria is only the beginning-more regional conflicts lie ahead.
French nuke carrier for sea-air drill with Egypt ahead of Libya offensive - http://www.debka.com/article/25266/French-nuke-carrier-for-sea-air-drill-with-Egypt-ahead-of-Libya-offensive
The French nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle is steaming through the Red Sea on its way to the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal for joint maneuvers with the Egyptian navy in preparation for a reduced coalition offensive against Islamic State's deepening grip on Libya. debkafile's military sources, reporting this, say it will be the Egyptian navy's first joint exercise with a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier; and also the first drill to be conducted by the new Egyptian missile frigate Tahya Misr (Long Live Egypt!), which underwent a series of exercises after it was delivered by the French DCNS naval shipbuilders last June.
The Charles de Gaulle departed the Persian Gulf Monday, Feb. 22 and is due to reach the eastern Mediterranean in the first week of March. The Egyptian frigate's weapons systems can shoot down planes and ballistic missiles as well as striking naval or ground targets. Its weapons systems can shoot down planes and ballistic missiles as well as striking naval or ground targets. But the vessel has been stripped of its regular electronic warfare and satellite communications systems for the exercise - apparently after a quiet understanding between France, Egypt and Israel.
The Egyptian frigate was originally designed to secure the Suez Canal against potential terrorist attacks from the Islamic State networks in the Sinai Peninsula and their offshoots in the Canal cities of Port Said, Ismailia and Suez. The warship was moved into the Mediterranean after President Francois Hollande and Egyptian President Abdul-Fatteh El-Sisi moved forward on plans for a joint assault with Italy to root out ISIS positions in Libya.
The three powers have agreed to launch this offensive in late April or May, debkafile's military and counterterrorism sources report.
The joint naval exercise will meanwhile drill coordination between the French and Egyptian navies and air forces in readiness for the combat operation. They will practice landing fighter-bombers taking of from the Charles de Gaulle decks at air bases in Egypt's western desert near the Libyan border, for refueling, reloading munitions or emergency landings, when damaged by enemy fire.
They will also rehearse joint marine landings from French and Egyptian warships.
Our sources report that the trilateral assault plan has undergone repeated revisions in recent weeks, mainly because President Barack Obama has had second thoughts about his initial scheme for the United States to lead the operation in Libya - this time from the front.
His first plan was for a large marine contingent to land on the Libyan coast under heavy air cover. But lately, he can't decide whether to deploy any US troops at all and inclines towards leaving the main onus of the anti-ISIS campaign in Libya to European and Middle East armies.
A final decision is expected by our Washington sources to substantially scale down the original plan. The dithering in Washington has led to delays in Paris, Cairo, Rome and London on drawing up a final list of ISIS targets to be hit and the size of the invasion forces, although the operation is just weeks away and time is pressing.
Islamic State commanders, viewing this lack of resolve, are beginning to feel safe in their Libyan strongholds, after drawing confidence from the recent downsizing of coalition strikes against its forces and bases in Iraq and Syria.
Since a small coalition vanguard for the main offensive landed in Libya last year, nothing much as happened to hold back ISIS advances in Libya, except for US drone strikes.
The White House spokesman Josh Earnest said this week that President Obama planned to address the terrorist organization's advances in Libya with top military officials.
Also this week, Libyan military officials reported that 15 French Special Operations experts had been in Benghazi for the past two months, assisting Libyan national troops in fighting the extremists. According to another report, a "small number" of British advisers has joined US military operatives who are giving local militias "tactical training in Misrata.
However, the joint French-Egyptian naval-air force drill about to take place is the most substantial sign that a real operation to confront ISIS in Libya may finally be about to go forward.
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