MIDEAST UPDATE: 7.1.16 - Thanks in no small part to Russia, Hezbollah is now a full-fledged army

Thanks in no small part to Russia, Hezbollah is now a full-fledged army - By Avi Issacharoff - http://www.timesofisrael.com/thanks-in-no-small-part-to-russia-hezbollah-is-now-a-full-fledged-army/

 

For now its focus is on the Syrian civil war, where it is sustaining heavy losses, but the Lebanese Shiite terror group has become a far more formidable player in the 10 years since the Second Lebanon War

 

Pictures being published from time to time by Hezbollah tell a great deal about its role in the fighting in Syria. In some of the pictures Hezbollah fighters can be seen leaning against Russian tanks, and the truth is that since Russia began its open military activities in Syria, Hezbollah fighters are also learning Russian methods of war, becoming familiar with advanced Russian weaponry, coming to understand the latest Russian technologies, and in some cases, actually fighting alongside Russian special forces.

 

Hezbollah is not alone. Members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps and some members of Shiite militias who have come from overseas have also been fighting alongside Russian soldiers on occasion. But when it comes to Hezbollah, such developments should be raising concerns on the Israeli side. The Shiite terror group is sustaining new losses every day in the fighting in Syria, but at the same time it is gaining expertise from one of the most advanced military forces in our region. 

 

In the 10 years since the Second Lebanon War, Hezbollah has been transformed from a terror group deployed against Israel to a full-scale army in almost every respect. It knows how to operate logistically over vast areas. This includes tending to the needs of its troops all over Syria, in much the same way the IDF's network of welfare officers and staffers does. It is also capable of tending to the welfare needs of Shiite civilians in the Syrian villages under its control. It operates artillery and rockets, it has entire networks of unmanned drones, it is skilled in the use of anti-tank weaponry, and of course it carries out ground operations to conquer and hold territory.

 

Its focus has emphatically shifted in the last few years and now overwhelmingly revolves around the civil war in Syria. Its emphasis is on building up power, military capability and military planning, with Syria at the top of its agenda and the conflict with Israel relegated to lesser importance. For now.

 

As with all the players in Syria, including Iran, the conflict is proving very bloody for Hezbollah. Hezbollah's Secretary General Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah acknowledged in a speech on Friday that Hezbollah had lost 26 of its men in the last three weeks alone in the Aleppo District; another was captured by rebels and yet another disappeared. Nasrallah said the Aleppo fighting was a critical stage in the war against the rebels, and promised to send more and more forces to the area. The scale of the losses is not surprising, although the fact that Nasrallah would acknowledge them is. Hezbollah is suffering losses week in and week out in Syria, and its death toll from the fighting to date is between 1,500 and 1,600, with another 5,000 to 6,000 injured. That means a third of Hezbollah's fighting force has been harmed. To some extent that leaves Nasrallah looking rather like a gambler in Vegas who keeps losing but refuses to quit. He doubles down and keeps losing.

 

Hezbollah has had some successes. In the Qalamoun Ridge on the Syria-Lebanon border, Hezbollah has taken control of the problematic area where Islamic State had been smuggling suicide bombers and explosives into Lebanon. After Hezbollah gained control of that area, there was a decrease in suicide attacks on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

 

For the most part, though, Hezbollah has suffered military losses and an incapacity to decisively prevail. In the Damascus area, in Homs, in Aleppo, and even in the Syrian Golan Heights, Hezbollah has not managed decisive victories that have prevented Islamic State, Al-Nusra Front and others from regrouping and hitting back. To take the case of Aleppo, the Fatah Army organization (which consists of several opposition groups) has in the last few days managed a series of military achievements in the fighting against Hezbollah.

 

Nasrallah's problem isn't limited to fatalities and casualties. The economic costs are high too - and not just the costs of running an army in Syria, with all the logistics that entails. Every family that has suffered a fatality or an injury gets financial aid from Hezbollah, and the expense is rising. And this is at a time when some of the banks in Lebanon are refusing to have any dealings with Hezbollah because of US sanctions legislation.

 

In his last speech, Nasrallah attempted to claim that the sanctions were having no impact on his organization. But the Hezbollah chief was being economical with the truth. Some Hezbollah activities are overseen directly by Iran, but others are financed by the banks in Lebanon, and they are most certainly being affected.

 

The winner from the Israel-Turkey d�tente - Hamas - http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/ANALYSIS-The-winner-from-Israel-Turkey-d�tente-Hamas-457833

 

Besides Hamas not being able to carry out military activity from Turkish soil, everything else stays the same.

 

Hamas and Turkey come out as the winners in the upcoming deal if reports in the Israeli media are correct.

 

Israel apparently has agreed to the presence of Hamas in Turkey as long as it does not involve itself directly in terrorist attacks against Israel, but limits itself to political and other supposedly nonviolent activity.

 

However, the sanction of the presence and "political" activity of Hamas in a country with diplomatic ties with Israel undermines years of Israeli public relations against the terrorist group, which sought to identify Hamas with other Sunni groups such as al-Qaida and Islamic State.

 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu equated Islamic State to Hamas in a speech to the UN in September 2014, saying some countries "evidently don't understand that ISIS and Hamas are branches of the same poisonous tree."

 

"ISIS and Hamas share a fanatical creed, which they both seek to impose well beyond the territory under their control," he said, going on to note that both groups call for the creation of a caliphate with global ambitions.

 

But, if Hamas is Islamic State, why is Israel sanctioning its activity, even though not directly terrorism related, in a country with which it wants to normalize relations? Turkish media reported that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal in Istanbul on Friday to discuss the negotiations with Israel.

 

Would Israel or any other Western country allow the leader of a friendly state with which it has diplomatic relations meet with Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and allow the organization to operate within its territory? Jonathan Schanzer, vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, told The Jerusalem Post the upcoming deal is "a win for the status quo as nothing really changes."

 

Besides Hamas not being able to carry out military activity from Turkish soil, everything else stays the same: Hamas maintains its Turkish headquarters; Turkey continues assisting Hamas-ruled Gaza; and Israel facilitates this.

 

Israel does gain the removal and blockage of lawsuits against its soldiers in return for a multi-million dollar settlement for families of Turks killed or injured on the Mavi Marmara flotilla, but other than that "it is a victory for Erdogan."

 

Furthermore, Israel and some analysts have taken great pains to point out that terrorist organizations such as Hamas and Hezbollah cannot be separated into political and military entities since they feed off and support one another as part of the same organization.

 

When the EU decided to ban Hezbollah's military wing but not its political one in 2013, Israeli supporters criticized it for not going far enough.

 

Netanyahu said at the time that he hoped the decision would lead to real steps in Europe against the group, and stated that, in Israel's view, Hezbollah was one indivisible organization.

 

Hence, allowing Hamas to continue to function anywhere undermines Israel's security.

 

Meanwhile, the Turkish Humanitarian Relief Foundation (IHH), the same organization that was behind the Mavi Marmara flotilla that sought to break Israel's blockade of the Gaza Strip in May 2010, objects to any rapprochement with Israel, the Hurriyet Daily News reported.

 

Selin Nasi, a columnist for the Hurriyet Daily News and the Turkish- Jewish weekly Salom, told the Post that if the report of the upcoming deal is true and Turkey agreed to the easing of the blockade but not lifting it, then "it could have a political cost with his conservative political constituency here in Turkey."

 

After opposing Israel so strongly in the past, Erdogan is in an uncomfortable situation. But because of the wars raging in Syria, Iraq, and the domestic Kurdish insurgency, as well as its terrible relations with Russia and many of its Middle Eastern neighbors, he felt something had to give.

 

Schanzer pointed out that from Israel's perspective, the government would like to have normalized ties with Muslim countries in general.

 

"But there is no way to have true normalized relations with Erdogan's government. It is virtually impossible to imagine, given that Turkey remains an Islamist-ruled state with close ties to Hamas and other anti-Israel organizations."

 

Perhaps the deal can be best described as an agreement "to stop publicly fighting, while quietly continuing to disagree on virtually everything."