WORLD AT WAR: 8.15.20 - China: Military Experts Urge Beijing to Prepare for War with U.S.

China: Military Experts Urge Beijing to Prepare for War with U.S. - by Lawrence A. Franklin - https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/16336/china-military-war Chinese military journalists are publicly urging the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to prepare immediately for an attack by U.S. forces in the South China Sea. One expertat Zhejiang University's National Institute for South China Sea Studies, Shi Xiaoqin, claims that the U.S. is deliberately trying to provoke China. They also suggest the regime reinforce Chinese installations on reefs claimed by China. If this analysis gains traction by Chinese political and military leaders, U.S. military commanders in the South China Sea should plan for the possibility that China mightinitiate hostilities in keeping with its doctrine of preemptive retaliation, a seeming attempt falsely to claim "self-defense." One writer suggests that the PLA should immediately move fighter aircraft to Chinese air bases in the Spratly Islands at Fiery Cross, Subi Reef, and Mischief Reef. He alsoboldly claims that the augmented presence of U.S. naval and air assets in the South China Sea is no longer just a show of force by America. Chen Hu, a Chinese military journalist, also asserts that the U.S. is now intent on provoking a conflict and is preparing for battle. Chen claims that the return of B1 bombersto Guam and continued deployment of two U.S. aircraft carrier groups in the South China Sea, despite the conclusion of military exercises, is supposedly a sign of Washington's aggressive intent. Chen suggests that recent U.S. "Freedom of Navigation" maneuversand the high number of U.S. surveillance collection missions along the Chinese coast is additional proof of American attack planning. Former PLA officer Wang Yunfei and naval equipment expert suggests that flights by American RC-135, E-8c, and RC-12X surveillanceaircraft equate to "pre-battle strategic technical surveillance." As the joke goes from the children's playground: "It all started when he hit me back." Wang further warns that U.S. President Donald J. Trump is likely to initiate a military conflict in the South China Sea region before the November 3 U.S. presidential election,speculating that "stirring up external frictions, especially military conflicts with China, will help the incumbent president for his re-election campaign." The leaders of China's Communist Party (CCP) also see that nothing was done by anyone, including the U.S., to stop China's grab of Hong Kong this year -- 37 years early.This paralysis of the West must have looked to the CCP like a green light to keep on grabbing. Wang even lays out his analysis on particular avenues of approach by which U.S. bombers might attack their Chinese targets. Wang, now a Chinese naval specialist, writesthat the U.S. will probably ship-launch Tomahawk Cruise against Chinese bases in the South China Sea. He further specifies that the PLA should deploy China's own aircraft carriers in the south central region of the sea, as the best strategy to counter anyU.S. assault. He adds that China must also deploy fighter jets and air defense missiles on various Chinese reefs. Wang singled out the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea's Paracel Island Chain as the most likely initial piece of real estate that the U.S. might seek to seize. TheScarborough (Huangyan) Shoal/Reef is claimed by both China and the Republic of the Philippines. Perhaps one reason why China might expect that Scarborough Shoal is a likely target is that the U.S. wants to re-cement military agreements with the Philippinesthat would allow American military assets access to Clark Air Force Base, Subic Bay Naval Base and other newer facilities. U.S. support for Manila's claim to the Scarborough Shoal against China's might be sufficient to convince the mercurial president of thePhilippines, Rodrigo Duterte, to patch up relations with the U.S. Chinese writer Zheng Hao, who assesses that it is possible that U.S.-Chinese tensions in the South China Sea could escalate into a "hot war," cites U.S. Secretary of StateMike Pompeo's July 13 statement that the South China Sea is "not China's maritime empire" as indicative of the Trump Administration's hostile intent. Zheng appears to be especially concerned about the July 7 U.S.-Japan naval exercise, which included an operationby the U.S. aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan and two warships of the Japanese Maritime Defense Forces. Zheng laments that the 2018 draft of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea has not yet been signed by the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN)and China. One hope to avoid or at least postpone an imminent clash in the South China Sea is for China and the U.S. to activate the crisis prevention apparatus established in November2014. This diplomatic device includes a Memorandum of Understanding on notification of military activities and rules of behavior designed to keep air and naval encounters peaceful. So far, there is no public acknowledgement that either China or the U.S. isemploying the crisis prevention mechanism. One recent sign of efforts by both sides to avoid a military incident was the Pentagon's August 7 announcement that U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and his Chinese counterpart, Minister of Defense Wei Fenghe,held a 90-minute teleconference last week. China, however, has been the party with the hostile intent, not only with Hong Kong, but also with an attack on northern India, an extensive military base build-up in theSouth China Sea, an attempted appropriation of the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands and a "fishing fleet" of 250 vessels showing up near the Galapagos Islands, off Ecuador. Another recent move from Beijing was to conduct live-fire targeting drills in theSouth China Sea from July 25 through August 2. The announcement of this exercise was promulgated by the PLA and not, as is usual, by the Chinese government's maritime administration. If China continues its aggressive posture toward the U.S.-allied free statesof Asia, especially Taiwan, a direct confrontation between the Chinese and U.S. militaries in the South China may indeed be necessary. Was the Beirut explosion intended for Israel? - Alex Traiman - https://www.jns.org/opinion/israels-august-4-miracle/ Many of Israel's modern military accomplishments have defied all odds and logic. Surprise victories in Israel's War of Independence in 1948, Six-DayWar in 1967 and Yom Kippur War in 1973 will forever stand among Israel's most miraculous and unlikely historical achievements. This past week, while smoke and debris covers Beirut, Israel may have averted a disaster. When a massive stockpile of weapons-grade ammonium nitrate exploded in the Beirut port on Aug. 4, it was without a doubt a tragedy of horrific proportions.At least 150 innocent civilians were killed and thousands more wounded. The damage to the city of Beirut, and to Lebanon's main seaport, will take years to repair. Yet for Israel, there is one major consolation: The stockpile of ammonium nitrate and the collateral damage it caused may well have been earmarkedfor Israel. While Israel and the rest of the international community have been offering humanitarian aid to Lebanon in the wake of one of the largest explosionssince the Chernobyl nuclear reactor blew in 1986, the greatest aid to the people of Lebanon would be the complete disarmament and expulsion of Hezbollah. Israel should now be staunchly making the case to the international community that weapons in the hands of irresponsible actors-and particularly internationalterror organizations-can only end in the death of innocent civilians. It was only one week prior to the massive explosion that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Benny Gantz held a joint pressconference following an attempt by Hezbollah to infiltrate Israel's northern border. Netanyahu stated, "We take a grave view of this attempt to infiltrate our territory. Hezbollah and Lebanon bear full responsibility for this incidentand any attack from Lebanese territory against Israel. Hezbollah should know that it is playing with fire." When terrorists play with fire, the results are almost inevitably going to turn deadly. Just several months ago, Israel's Mossad security agency reportedly provided Germany with significant evidence of Hezbollah's weapons storage, includingammonium nitrate. It was this information that led Germany to formally ban Hezbollah from operating in its country. Similarly, The Daily Telegraph revealed in 2019 that U.K. intelligence agencies, acting on a tip from a foreign intelligence agency (the Mossad accordingto a senior Israeli official), found some three tons of ammonium nitrate in a raid on four London properties back in 2015. The ammonium nitrate was stored in thousands of disposable ice packs. In 2019, the IDF published a video detailing Hezbollah's precision-guided missile program. It is currently estimated that Hezbollah has more than 150,000mortars, rockets and missiles stockpiled for use against Israel. Security experts have similarly indicated that it was an initial explosion of stockpiled weapons in an adjacent portside hangar that acted as the detonatorfor the large stockpile of ammonium nitrate. In 2018, ahead of a U.N. Security Council meeting, Netanyahu called Hezbollah's stockpiling of weapons intended for Israel among Lebanese civilians"a double war crime." In 2016, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah gave a chilling speech indicating that an explosion of ammonium nitrate in Israel's Haifa port could carrythe same explosive charge as a nuclear bomb. During the 34-day military conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006, the terrorist organization fired approximately 4,000 rockets and missilesagainst Israel, at a rate of approximately 100 per day. And Hezbollah has been using explosives to perpetrate terror attacks for decades. A bombing of American and French peacekeeping forces in 1983 killed307. The explosive blast was reported to be the equivalent of more than 21,000 pounds of TNT. Acting as a primary state-sponsored terror actor of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Hezbollah has wreaked havoc across Lebanon and Syria, and remainsthe most lethal threat against Israeli population centers. For the last several years, Iran has been consistently smuggling weapons to its terror proxy, via a land bridge across Iraq and Syria, through theBeirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport, and most notably through the Beirut seaport, where the ammonium nitrate was stored in a warehouse adjacent to the water. While grieving over the deaths of innocent civilians, Israel must be extremely grateful that this stockpile was not detonated anywhere close to itsown border. And now seeing firsthand how much damage can be caused by ammonium nitrate, one need only imagine the damage that could be caused should Iran successfully smuggle a nuclear weapon into Hezbollah's hands. During the first Gulf War of 1991, Saddam Hussein fired 42 Scud missiles at Israel. During the barrage, only one Israeli reportedly died-of a heartattack due to a nearby explosion. The lack of damage to Israel was a phenomenon of miraculous proportions. That nearly 3,000 tons of weapons-grade ammonium nitrate likely earmarked for use against Israel will now never reach its intended target is a similarmiracle. Yet despite the severe damage caused by Hezbollah's "work accident," the stockpiling of weapons against Israel remains a grave threat. A campaign tofully disarm Hezbollah must be immediately launched. For as long as Hezbollah continues to have missiles pointed at Israel, the Jewish state will live in constant fear of attack. Peace in the region willnever be reached until Hezbollah is fully disarmed.