Putin bypasses Israel, sets up joint war room for Southern Syria with Jordan - http://www.debka.com/article/25166/Putin-bypasses-Israel-sets-up-joint-war-room-for-S-Syria-with-Jordan-
In a pivotal step reflecting the changeability of military and political deals in Israel's neighborhood, Jordan has almost overnight agreed to establish a shared war room with Russia for the concerted conduct of their operations in Syria. This represents an extreme reversal of Amman's policy. Until now, Jordan fought against Russia's prot�g�e Bashar Assad from a joint war room north of Amman called the US Central Command Forward-Jordan, as part of a lineup with the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel.
But this week Jordan shifted onto a new plane.
debkafile's military and intelligence sources say Jordanian King Abdullah's decision to team up with Moscow starts a whole new ball game rolling on policy-making and intelligence-sharing. He doesn't plan to shut down his shared command center with the US and Israel, but the center of gravity of Jordan's military and intelligence efforts will be redirected to the new center with Russia, representing a major earthquake in those areas.
Amman is working hard to downplay the new partnership, presenting it as designed to foster better coordination between the American and Russian military efforts in Syria and the war on the Islamic State.
That picture is misleading.
With all due respect to the Jordanian monarch, his military and his intelligence services, they are not exactly qualified for the role of coordinator between the two world powers. The US and Russian president's handle this in person. And in fact, the new Russian-Jordanian war room did come up, according to our Washington and Moscow sources, in the latest telephone conversation between the two presidents on Jan. 13.
Obama then held a quick meeting with King Abdullah at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland and asked for an explanation.
For the various rebel militias holding out in large parts of southern Syria, including the Israeli border regions, the new Jordanian-Russian war room is bad news. Hitherto, Jordan provided the rebels with their main pipeline for fighters, weapons and funds from the US, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The US even ran training camps in Jordan for Syrian rebel fighters.
This pipeline is now likely to be shut down or reduced to a minimum.
The Jordanians gloss over their shift, claiming it is designed to force the Syrian rebels of the South to accept a ceasefire and join peace talks with the US and Russia on Syria's future. That is no more than diplomatic-speak for the real purpose, which is to compel them to give up the fight against Assad, and make way for Moscow to achieve its key objective, which is to restore the Assad regime's control over the South.
Ever since his major intervention in Syria, Putin has tried to persuade Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to pull the rug from under the Israeli-backed rebels in the South. They are deemed as a necessary buffer for securing Israel's northern border and blocking the re-imposition of Assad's authority there.
The content of the exchanges between Putin and Netanyahu has only been shared with tight circles of confidants in Jerusalem and the Kremlin, so little is reliably known about their areas of agreement and dispute.
There is no doubt that the prime minister spoke firmly about Israel's abiding concern that, once Assad regained control of the South, he would open the door up to the Israeli border and let in his allies and Israel's arch enemies, Hezbollah and the mostly-Iraqi Shiite militias fighting under the command of officers from Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps.
By teaming up with Jordan for a joint war room to cover operations in southern Syria, Putin has gone around Netanyahu's back and acquired a helper for evicting Syrian rebels from southern Syria.
Russian air strikes slowed down over Syria by weather and maintenance - http://www.debka.com/article/25156/Russian-air-strikes-slowed-down-over-Syria-by-weather-and-maintenance
Russian air raids over Syria were seen to have tapered off in the first 10 days of the New Year to their lowest level since the onset of Moscow's major intervention in Syria in late September, intelligence sources report. The slowdown was not officially reported or explained. But our sources point to three likely causes:
1. The Russian Air Force conducted an exceptionally intensive series of aerial strikes over northern and southern Syria in the course of December. This may have caused too many technical problems for the overtaxed ground crews to keep up with the necessary maintenance work.
2. Winter conditions in the region are subject to extreme and rapid change, often swinging between snow storms and warm air currents in the space of a few hours. Russian air and ground crews alike are finding it hard to adjust to Middle East weather.
3. The first days of January are Russia's traditional holiday season. The Eastern churches celebrate Christmas on Jan. 7. Air crews may have decided to take a break from combat missions.
In case the slowdown was misinterpreted in the West, the Russian high command published a set of statistics Monday, Jan. 11 that painted a picture of intense activity.
In the first ten days of 2016, the Russian Air Force was said to have conducted 311 air strikes against 1097 targets.
The communiqu� also noted that the first Syrian Air Force MidG-23 fighter plane was able to land at Hama air base. This central Syrian facility had been inactive for months because it was under rebel artillery fire and was now restored to full operation, thanks to Russian air bombardments of rebel forces.
From Hama, the Syrian army is now back in command of the Rte 5 highway linking Aleppo to Damascus, opening up for Syrian, Hezbollah and pro-Iranian militia armies their only road link and supply route between central and northern Syria.
The recovery of Hama also provides a shield for defending Latakia, President Bashar Assad's main power base.
Western intelligence experts estimate that the air strike statistics offered by Moscow are exaggerated. They tie the operation for the relief of the Hama air base with a project about to be launched by the Russian command from its base outside Latakia, namely, the transfer of Russian air force and special operations officers and forces teams to the Palmyra area, in readiness for an offensive to seize all the Syrian air facilities to the west of the town from ISIS control.
Russian tacticians in Syria appear to be focusing now on pushing rebel and Islamic State forces out of all the airfields they have captured, in order to get the Syrian Air Force flying and bombing again, and so ease the burden on the Russian flight crews in Syria.
General Dvornikov: Russia's combined C-in-C and top diplomat in Syria - http://www.debka.com/article/25154/Gen-Dvornikov-Russia's-combined-C-in-C-and-top-diplomat-in-Syria-
It was in August, 2015, on the eve of the massive Russian military intervention in Syria, that President Vladimir Putin selected Col. Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, 54, as chief of Russia's military operation in Syria and Iraq, debkafile's military and intelligence sources report. He resolved a fierce debate among Russia's top officials and generals over the officer to lead the what was to be the most high-powered venture of the Putin presidency. Many favored a senior air force officer, conceiving the campaign as focusing mainly on air strikes. They proposed Col. Gen. Victor Nikolaevich Bondarev, chief of Aerospace Defense Forces, a branch established just four months ago.
Putin overruled them, having decided that the diplomatic and ground components were to be just as important as the future aerial campaign. He picked Gen Dvornikov, whom he first met 26 years ago in Berlin during the last moments of the dying Soviet empire. In 2015, he judged the general as being the right man for the job he had in mind, by virtue of his extensive military experience in running the 2000-2003 North Caucasus wars against Islamic terror groups, as chief of staff and a motorized infantry division commander.
In his new posting, Gen. Dvornikov was given control of the twin Russian commands in Damascus and Baghdad. They function as two halves of the same war room.
At the Damascus headquarters, he has three partners: The Syrian Chief of Staff Gen. Ali Abdullah Ayyoub, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Gen. Key Parvar and the commander of Hezbollah forces in Syria, Mostafa Bader el-Din. Until his mysterious disappearance in November, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, Iranian commander in Syria and Iraq, would put in an occasional appearance at high command conferences.
The two command centers' operations are fully coordinated and keep the single overall commander, Col. Gen. Dvornikov, on top of events and in control of decisions 24/7 - a key position of enormous authority and extreme diplomatic sensitivity for juggling Moscow's opposition allies and interests.
The Saudi government, which operates, arms and funds a number of Syrian rebel militias, regards the Russian general as the ultimate nemesis of its interests in Syria, because he expends as much force on fighting those militias as in striking the Islamic State.
After the Hezbollah super terrorist Samir Quntar was assassinated on Dec. 20, the Saudis engineered a press leak showing how Gen. Dvornikov was turned away from the door of the Iranian command headquarters in Damascus when he came to offer condolences for the death of one of their top agents. The Iranians were furious with the Russian commander for allowing Israeli air planes free rein to fire rockets into Quntar's secret hideout in Damascus.
That incident was an illustration of how the Russian general walks on eggs in a job that requires him to collaborate militarily with Iran and Hizballah, on the one hand, and uphold the understandings Putin reached with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, on the other, over Israeli Air Force actions against terrorists and their conflciting interests in the southern Syrian regions bordering on Israel.
Hezbollah commanders say Russia directly arming them with long-range missiles - http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Hezbollah-commanders-say-Russia-directly-arming-them-with-long-range-missiles-441124
As part of their ongoing cooperation, Russia has supplied Hezbollah with weapons in exchange for intel and assistance in target selection, commanders tell Daily Beast.
Lebanon's Hezbollah is surreptitiously being armed by Russia, the Daily Beast reported Sunday, with no conditions being placed on the acceptable use of the traded arms.
According to two Hezbollah field commanders who spoke to the online publication, Russia and Hezbollah's direct interdependence and coordination is increasing by day.
While the United States and the European Union have proceeded to support Israel's recognition of Hezbollah as a terrorist organization serving Iranian interests, Russia has refrained. A statement issued by its Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov in November said that Russia "maintains contacts and relations with them [Hezbollah] because we do not consider them a terrorist organization."
As part of the ongoing cooperation between the two, Russia has supplied Hezbollah with long-range tactical missiles, laser guided rockets, and anti-tank weapons, its commanders said.
"We are strategic allies in the Middle East right now," said Commander Bakr - speaking to the Daily Beast under an alias so as not to overstep a ban to speak to media.
Bakr said that Russia's support of Hezbollah has been increasing since 2012, taking a sharp turn with the launch of Russia's air campaigns in Syria in September 2015. He said Russia relies on Hezbollah operatives for intelligence and assistance in target selection for its air strikes, strengthening the interdependence between the two.
With Hezbollah forces on the ground and Russian jets in the air, Hezbollah has made advances that would be impossible sans support.
"The intervention of the Russians made it much easier," Bakr said of his organization's fight in Syria. "Without their air force we can't advance and they couldn't give us air support without our information from the ground," he said.
He also told the Daily Beast that Special Forces of the Russian army were operating on the ground in Syria's Latakia district.
Russian and Hezbollah officials did not comment on the Daily Beast's report.
Assir (also an alias), a Hezbollah recruiter and Special Forces commander, told the Daily Beast that the Russians rely on Hezbollah, rather than Syrian military forces, to guard its arm depots in Syria - giving them extensive access to its contents.
Russia is not placing restrictions on how these weapons may be used, Assir said, giving rise to the possibility that advanced Russian weapons be used against Israel by Hezbollah.
"When it comes to Israel, Hezbollah doesn't take directions from anyone," Assir told the Daily Beast.
Both Hezbollah commanders maintained that, despite free access to the arsenals, Hezbollah would not rely on Russian weapons in a confrontation with Israel. The Iranian arms in their possession will make do.
Hezbollah may strike Israeli ships from Syria with Russian made missiles - http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Navy-Hezbollah-may-strike-Israeli-ships-from-Syria-with-Russian-made-missiles-441630
The naval commander listed a number of maritime threats with which Israel must contend, ranging from Hezbollah and Syria in the north to ISIS and Hamas in the south.
"Syria possesses Russian-made Yachont missiles, and there is the feeling that they have also made their way into the hands of Hezbollah," a senior Israel Navy officer told The Jerusalem Post's Hebrew-language sister publication Ma'ariv.
"In any event, our working assumption is that [the Lebanese Shi'ite organization] will launch those missiles from Syria," the officer said.
The naval commander listed a number of maritime threats with which Israel must contend, ranging from Hezbollah and Syria in the north to ISIS and Hamas in the south.
When asked if ISIS or any other rejectionist group poses a threat to Israel, the official said: "We are taking into account that anyone holding a weapon will use it at some point."
The official said that the defense establishment believes the Yachont poses the greatest threat to Israel's ships and submarines, adding that the supersonic cruise missiles are being housed in facilities controlled by the Assad regime.
According to foreign reports, Israel has thwarted several attempts by the Assad regime to transfer weapons to Hezbollah, considering it a red line that cannot be crossed.
The senior official added that the missiles pose the greatest threat to strategic assets controlled by Israel and is deeply concerned that it could elude the newly developed Barak 8 missile defense system.
"Hezbollah has in its possession a broad spectrum of missiles" in its arsenal, the official stressed. "Any ship that leaves our docks is now at threat."
Not a week goes by in which the Navy does not practice against such attack scenarios, the official said, adding that the Navy also conducts training exercises that protects Israel from possible infiltration, attacks on its ports and underwater vessel hijackings.
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