Fall of Aleppo Signals Entrenchment of Assad Regime, Iran in Syria, Bad News for Israel - Ruthie Blum - https://www.algemeiner.com/2016/12/14/mideast-analyst-fall-of-aleppo-signals-entrenchment-of-assad-regime-iran-in-syria-bad-news-for-israel/
Israel should be extremely concerned over the fall of Aleppo, as it means that Iran and its proxy Hezbollah have achieved free rein in Syria to try to establish a foothold along the Golan Heights, a Mideast expert wrote on Wednesday.
In an analysis for Israel's Channel 2 News, Ehud Ya'ari said that, aside from the "heart-wrenching carnage and destruction" the world is witnessing in Syria, "it is now clear that [President] Bashar Assad will remain ensconced in his palace...as long as US President-elect Donald Trump does not offer Russian President Vladimir Putin the right price for abandoning him."
Alluding to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's reported coordination with Putin - regarding IDF operations aimed at preventing the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah and Russian air strikes too near to Israel's northern border - Ya'ari said that if the Russian president decided to ignore the unwritten contract, he could simply order his air force to crush rebels in southern Syria.
Fortunately, however, Ya'ari continued, "This scenario is not materializing in the meantime, because Putin has his own priorities: seeking understandings with Trump over Europe and the Mideast, and - if that doesn't bear fruit - trampling the rebels in the province of Idlib, the last important Syrian area under their control."
Still, Ya'ari asserted, "It is important to remember that Trump and his team have no great interest in removing Assad. If anything, they want to keep Tehran at bay and make a deal with Russia, which does not want to see Iran become hegemonic in the Fertile Crescent."
The bottom line, whichever way one looks at it, Ya'ari said, is that "there is no longer any real threat to the regime that has become a protégé of Tehran in every respect."
This is all bad news for Israel, he noted, which "has been left without the ability to influence events beyond the strip of villages along the Golan Heights" - a situation that might have been avoided, he said, if Israel had assisted the rebels in posing a threat to Assad. "But since Israel was hesitant to do this, and [US President Barack] Obama withdrew his hand from Syria, the Russians entered," he wrote.
As a result, Ya'ari argued, rather than losing Syria and putting a dent in its other expansionist regional aims, Iran now has a "diving board" from which to catapult itself. "In another decade, when Iran finishes upgrading its outdated army, all of this will be greatly significant," he pointed out.
In an interview with The Algemeiner last Thursday - following a week in which Israel was reported by Arab media outlets to have struck Hezbollah convoys in Syria - a former IDF military intelligence analyst said that the possibility of the Lebanon-based Shiite terrorist organization being equipped by the Syrian regime or Iran with chemical and biological weapons could not be ruled out.
Hamas says it now has 'real army' to fight Israel, is 'leading' missile-maker in Arab world - http://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-official-says-group-is-now-leading-missile-maker-in-arab-world/
Member of terror group's political bureau praises Gaza leadership under which he claims 'nobody has died of hunger or anything'
A senior Hamas official said that the terror group has built a so-called "real army" to fight Israel and that it has become the leading manufacturer of missiles in the Arab world.
Fathi Hammad, a member of the group's political bureau and a former interior minister in Gaza, said Hamas "has made a resolute decision to remain steadfast and wage jihad, as the only means to liberate Palestine," according to the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) which picked up a media interview he gave on Al-Aqsa TV on December 8.
Hammad called Israel's 2005 Disengagement from the Gaza Strip a liberation "under the watch of Hamas," thanks to its "Jihad [holy war]."
Two years after Israel's withdrawal, the Islamist group carried out a violent coup to seize power from Mahmoud Abbas's Palestinian Authority and has tightly controled the Palestinian enclave since. Israel and Egypt maintain a security blockade on Gaza in an effort to prevent Hamas, which has fought three recent wars against Israel, from importing weaponry. The blockade has affected the Gazan economy and the Strip maintains one of the highest unemployment and poverty rates in the world, according to the World Bank.
Hammad, however, claimed in the interview that Hamas "has proven itself through its rule" and that under its leadership "nobody has died of hunger or anything."
On the contrary, he went on, "following the liberation of Gaza, [Hamas's armed wing] the Izz Al-Din Al-Qassam units have become an army" with "its own industry."
"We are now ready to sell our missiles to Arab countries. These are advanced missiles. If you look into the missile or weapon industries of developed countries, you will find that Gaza has become the leading manufacturer of missiles among Arab countries. We are prepared to sell them (to Arab countries) - so that they will launch them against the Jews, not for infighting among themselves."
Hammad said Hamas, which is sworn to Israel's destruction, should "not cooperate with any settlement deal" with the Jewish state,. There is an expected international peace conference set to take place in Paris next year.
Iran Stages Massive War Drills In Show of 'Supremacy' - Adam Kredo - http://freebeacon.com/national-security/iran-stages-massive-war-drills-show-supremacy/
Unveils new drone technology
Iran has been conducting a series of massive war-drills meant to demonstrate the Islamic Republic's "supremacy" and show Western forces that the country is prepared to attack forces stationed in the Persian Gulf region, according to Iranian military leaders and reports in the country's state-run media.
The war drills, which began on Sunday in southeastern Iran and continued into Monday, include ground and air forces as well as unmanned drones.
The war games coincided with the public release by Iran of a new unmanned drone, the latest in a series of such aircraft publicly flown by Tehran in recent months.
Iran military leaders warned the United States against taking any provocative action in the region and promised a swift military response, according to comments over the weekend as the war drills began.
"The Islamic Republic of Iran's military forces enjoy supremacy over the Persian Gulf region more than any other time," Brigadier General Massoud Jazzayeri, the deputy chief of staff of Iran's Armed Forces, was quoted as saying over the weekend. "The military and security conditions of the Persian Gulf are in a way that the enemy's forces and equipment are fully within the range of the Iranian military men."
The war drills, which are expected to carry on into Wednesday, also included the introduction of a new jamming system that Iran claims is capable of bringing down enemy drones. Iran also displayed several precision missiles and helicopters armed with heavy ammunition.
Iranian forces fired "several rockets" at two targets stationed in the Sea of Oman, according to the country's state-controlled press.
Meanwhile, Iranian leaders have accused the United States of launching a new hacking operation on Tehran's infrastructure.
"At present, the US has launched a project named Nitro Zeus with the aim of attacking Iran's defense and telecommunication infrastructures," Alireza Karimi, a member of Iran's Civil Defense Organization, was quoted as saying on Monday.
"Based on studies that we have carried out, the project is assessed to be much more dangerous than the Stuxnet project," Karimi was reported as saying, referring to a joint U.S.-Israeli cyber effort to disrupt Iran's nuclear network.
Iran Stages Massive War Drills In Show of 'Supremacy' - Adam Kredo - http://freebeacon.com/national-security/iran-stages-massive-war-drills-show-supremacy/
Unveils new drone technology
Iran has been conducting a series of massive war-drills meant to demonstrate the Islamic Republic's "supremacy" and show Western forces that the country is prepared to attack forces stationed in the Persian Gulf region, according to Iranian military leaders and reports in the country's state-run media.
The war drills, which began on Sunday in southeastern Iran and continued into Monday, include ground and air forces as well as unmanned drones.
The war games coincided with the public release by Iran of a new unmanned drone, the latest in a series of such aircraft publicly flown by Tehran in recent months.
Iran military leaders warned the United States against taking any provocative action in the region and promised a swift military response, according to comments over the weekend as the war drills began.
"The Islamic Republic of Iran's military forces enjoy supremacy over the Persian Gulf region more than any other time," Brigadier General Massoud Jazzayeri, the deputy chief of staff of Iran's Armed Forces, was quoted as saying over the weekend. "The military and security conditions of the Persian Gulf are in a way that the enemy's forces and equipment are fully within the range of the Iranian military men."
The war drills, which are expected to carry on into Wednesday, also included the introduction of a new jamming system that Iran claims is capable of bringing down enemy drones. Iran also displayed several precision missiles and helicopters armed with heavy ammunition.
Iranian forces fired "several rockets" at two targets stationed in the Sea of Oman, according to the country's state-controlled press.
Meanwhile, Iranian leaders have accused the United States of launching a new hacking operation on Tehran's infrastructure.
"At present, the US has launched a project named Nitro Zeus with the aim of attacking Iran's defense and telecommunication infrastructures," Alireza Karimi, a member of Iran's Civil Defense Organization, was quoted as saying on Monday.
"Based on studies that we have carried out, the project is assessed to be much more dangerous than the Stuxnet project," Karimi was reported as saying, referring to a joint U.S.-Israeli cyber effort to disrupt Iran's nuclear network.
Israel's northern front - Hezbollah's supply lines - Sarit Zehavi - http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Israels-northern-front-Hezbollahs-supply-lines-475078
Twice in the past week, Syria has reported an Israeli attack on military targets in the Damascus region, around 25 kilometers from the Lebanese border and approximately 50 kilometers from the border with Israel.
During the first attack, a truck convoy on the Beirut-Damascus Highway that, according to the news reports, was transporting weaponry or even rockets from Syria to Lebanon, and a Syrian army arms cache were hit. A week later, an apparent arms cache was targeted at the Mazzeh Military Airport, and the ammunition caused secondary explosions that were heard and seen for many hours throughout the region.
The Al-Jazeera TV station even reported that the weaponry at Mazzeh included barrel bombs, similar to those used by the regime against the rebels. It is unclear whether anyone was hurt in the two attacks.
This is not the first time reports have been received regarding Israeli attacks on Hezbollah weapons convoy and arms caches in Syria, aiming to thwart the transfer of Syrian weaponry to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Up until approximately a year ago, Hezbollah even tried to create a tit-for-tat equation for some of these attacks; however the IDF's tough and cautious policy has apparently caused it to reconsider.
The number of attacks against Hezbollah's arms convoys and caches has dwindled over the past year, and it was assumed that this was a consequence of the Russian presence in the area, including the positioning in Syria of advanced air defense systems and later the arrival of the Russian aircraft carrier and missile boats to the Mediterranean Sea.
This latest incident, however, was irregular in several respects, including the non-kinetic way in which the sides are conducting themselves: Hezbollah and Syria have clearly laid the blame for the attacks on Israel. That was followed by announcements by Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, who clarified that although Israel has no interest in intervening in Syria's civil war, it acts to preserve its citizens' security and protect its sovereignty, and attempts to prevent the transfer of smart weapons, military equipment and weapons of mass destruction from Syria to Hezbollah.
Liberman emphasized that this is Israel's policy and Israel "will make decisions according to this policy without taking other circumstances or restrictions into account." The IDF generally refrains from referring, or even hinting, to these attacks, and reference to Israel's red lines by political ranks in the past was only general.
The statement that Israel will not take restrictions into account is presumably intended to refute the premise that the Russian presence prevents the IDF from acting freely. The two most recent attacks, if they were indeed carried out by Israel, prove that the coordination mechanism between the two countries is working at the highest levels. This is manifested, among other things, by the many visits of the highest Israeli echelons to Moscow. Senior officials in the Israel Air Force have even clarified that Israel understands that the anti-aircraft weapons that Russia has positioned in Syria are not directed at Israel and, therefore, the IAF "flies [regardless of] their presence."
However, this is not the end of the story.
At the same time, and seemingly not coincidentally, the IDF published - in English - a map of Hezbollah's military infrastructure in Lebanon - marking 10,000 structures and underground positions the IDF has identified in recent years. The map's publication on the morning of the second attack was intended to serve as a message not only to the international community, but also to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, as part of the efforts to discourage the Shi'ite alliance from retaliating over the attacks in Syria.
The IDF and Hezbollah have been waging this type of psychological war for years. Hezbollah repeatedly threatens that it has new abilities to attack Israel, including occupying communities or IDF posts close to the border and firing rockets at Haifa's ammonia tanks.
On the other hand, the IDF reveals that it knows where Hezbollah's "capabilities" lie, and that everyone knows their location is a breach of international law.
As part of this strategy, the IDF has published video clips of Hezbollah depicting its clearing of arms caches inside villages that exploded as the result of accidents, maps and aerial photographs of Hezbollah's deployment in villages in southern Lebanon and much more.
After the civil war broke out in Syria, Israel sought to emphasize that despite the sending of Lebanese manpower to aid the war in Syria, the supply of Syrian weaponry to Hezbollah in Lebanon has not stopped.
Incidentally, Israel takes Hezbollah's threats very seriously. Along the border with Lebanon, one can see the fortifications the IDF has built to protect the border communities and farmers.
Reports are constantly published in Israel regarding the Home Front's readiness for rocket attacks, and the IDF frequently holds training exercises for such scenarios.
During a week when Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime is about to emerge victorious in Aleppo, and the confidence among the Shi'ite alliance is on the rise, one might ask how the Shi'ite leaders will choose to react.
Will they not respond to the incidents and focus on northern Syria? Will they respond in a way that in their assessment will deter Israel from keeping to its red lines and allow them to continue transferring weaponry to Lebanon? Or will they respond mildly, merely to transmit the message that every Israeli action will be met with retaliation, or in other words, return to last year's equation of action-reaction? The last two options might, in certain scenarios, lead to regional escalation.
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