WORLD AT WAR: 12.2.16 - How the Iran deal, Syrian civil war prepares Hezbollah for future of terror

How the Iran deal, Syrian civil war prepares Hezbollah for future of terror - By Marc C. Johnson - http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/foreign-policy/307878-how-the-iran-deal-syrian-civil-war-is-preparing-hezbollah

 

Surveying the conflict in Syria over the last 6-plus years, it's not hard to find losing parties in the wreckage.

 

Thousands of innocent children, civilians, doctors, first responders, and journalists fill casualty lists - non-combatant collateral damage. The Syrian Arab Army can't credibly claim to have "won," either, as both ISIS and non-ISIS rebel groups are still trying to bring down its regime.

 

And ISIS itself - belatedly - appears to be losing ground, in no small part thanks to the direct intervention of Russia and Iran.

 

But one group, Hezbollah, is reaping significant tangible benefits from fighting in Syria. Not that they haven't been bloodied. The group has lost an estimated 1,500 fighters since 2011, with more than three times that wounded.

 

That's not a small number considering its total force is under 50,000 men, less than half in regular service. Some estimates suggest as many as 10,000 Hezbollah fighters have been deployed to Syria.

 

But Hezbollah's blood sacrifice for the Assad regime has been compensated for in other ways.

 

Predictably, the Iran deal was a boon for the group. Even Secretary of State Kerry publicly admitted that part of the financial windfall from the Iran deal would likely make its way to "terrorist groups" (a thinly veiled reference to Hezbollah) via the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

 

And though there hasn't been much open source reporting on how Hezbollah has benefited from monies related to the Iran deal, we do know that the Iranian government increased its most recent defense budget by 90 percent compared to the previous year.

 

Since Hezbollah may have been receiving as much as $200 million a year from Tehran, and in view of the Islamic Republic's expectations of Hezbollah's commitment in Syria, it's not a stretch to assume that the group has received more money, even if it doesn't get a larger share of the pie.

 

Moreover, the Iran deal also de-listed a vast swath of Tehran's covert procurement network. Much of this was developed to acquire prohibited dual-use items for Iran's nuclear and missile programs.

 

Other parts of it, though, such as cargo ships connected to the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, were also used to ferry weapons and materiel to Hezbollah via Syria. The Iran deal effectively legalized this hitherto illegal network.

 

Also as part of the deal, the European Union and the U.K. recently lifted sanctions on Bank Saderat, long known by U.S. intelligence and sanctioned for transferring money on behalf of Tehran to Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and other nefarious organizations.

 

Hezbollah is also using new weaponry in Syria. Since the end of its 2006 war with Israel, Iran and Syria had begun to improve Hezbollah's war fighting capability.

 

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz produced a report in July illustrating Hezbollah's transformation from an organized but under-resourced terror group into a proper army; this augmentation took place partly before the group's involvement in Syria.

 

But a Washington Institute report also assessed that Hezbollah fighters' access to more advanced Russian surface-to-air and rocket systems in Syria could help them in future conflicts.

 

And Israel's interceptions of several shipments of guided missiles, advanced anti-aircraft systems and anti-ship cruise missiles in recent years suggest that the group will have the capacity to use these systems in future engagements.

 

Furthermore, Syria is providing current combat experience for Hezbollah, whose last large-scale military engagement was a decade ago.

 

In the intervening years, older fighters have retired and newer ones have joined up. Without the Syrian civil war, many of these new fighters would still be green and untested when the next (inevitable) war with the Jewish State occurs.

 

In a candid moment, a Hezbollah special forces commander recently admitted to VOA that, "in some ways, Syria is a dress rehearsal for our next war with Israel."

 

The new cadre of fighters Hezbollah is bringing in is also professionalizing what was previously an explicitly guerrilla-oriented organization. The fight for Syria against the nominally Sunni "Takfiri" (apostate) ISIS, has been a gift to the Shia Hezbollah, spurring recruitment efforts. Put simply, Hezbollah is not just getting better at fighting, its army is also getting bigger.

 

Finally, the political fallout from the Obama administration's often aloof posture toward Arab allies such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has encouraged Iran and Hezbollah to consolidate political power in Beirut.

 

Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia announced it would suspend $3 billion in military aid to Lebanon, a move widely interpreted as an exasperated admission by Riyadh that Lebanon was now mostly controlled by Hezbollah.

 

Previously Hezbollah had acted as a "state within" the Lebanese state, controlling the Israel-facing Southern portion of the country. With the recent election of Michel Aoun as president, however, Hezbollah's grip on Lebanese democratic institutions is strengthening. Though a Maronite Christian, Aoun has nevertheless been an ally of Hezbollah since at least its 2006 war.

 

While Israel's Defense Forces are still vastly superior to Hezbollah in terms of both numbers and training, Hezbollah's rise certainly won't be welcomed in Jerusalem.

 

Israel might be assured of winning the next war, but Hezbollah is in a better position than ever to inflict civilian casualties, raising the stakes on both sides.

 

The "Party of God" has reaped rewards as a result of its engagement in Syria, making it more dangerous and promising that Hezbollah will remain a concern for policymakers in both Israel and the United States for years to come.

 

Defense minister: Israel will respond with 'full force' to IS attacks - By Raoul Wootliff - http://www.timesofisrael.com/defense-minister-israel-will-respond-with-full-force-to-is-attacks/

 

In first comments since clash on Syrian border, Liberman says aggression against IDF soldiers will face 'immediate' retaliation

 

In his first public comments after IDF troops killed four Islamic State fighters in a confrontation along the northern border with Syria, Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman said Monday that Israel would not tolerate any provocations by the group and would respond unilaterally to attacks with "full force."

 

Speaking at his Yisrael Beytenu's weekly faction meeting at the Knesset, Liberman said aggression against IDF soldiers would be met with an "immediate" response, and without coordination with other countries fighting in Syria.

 

"For the first time an Islamic State force attacked our soldiers and we replied appropriately - with a powerful response," Liberman said. "Israel is not looking for a fight but when we are faced with provocation - in Gaza, on the Syrian or Lebanese borders - we will respond with full force, as was done here."

 

Sunday saw the first case of an IS affiliate deliberately attacking Israeli troops inside Israel. Numerous mortar shells have fallen inside Israel, some of which may have been fired by these terrorist groups, though most were likely spillover from the fighting in Syria rather than a directed attack.

 

The incident was sparked when soldiers from the Golani Brigade's reconnaissance unit crossed the security fence with Syria to conduct an "ambush operation," while remaining inside Israeli territory. The troops came under small arms fire from members of the Khalid ibn al-Walid Army, formerly known as the Yarmouk Martyr's Brigade, an Israel Defense Forces spokesperson said.

 

They returned fire, but soon came under attack from mortar shells. In response, the Israel Air Force targeted a truck "that had some sort of machine gun on top of it" and killed the four terrorists who were riding in it, the spokesperson said.

 

Military officials have since described the incident as a one-off, saying they did not expect the jihadists to press ahead with more attacks on Israeli troops.

 

Asked if Israel had coordinated with other countries fighting in Syria or planned to in the future, Liberman said that when attacked on its sovereign territory, Israel had no need to coordinate with anyone else and would respond "immediately."

 

"When we identify the source of fire, we respond to it. If not, then the sovereign is Assad's army and we will respond there," he added.

 

Echoing Liberman, Netanyahu told his own Likud faction that Israel would not allow any Islamic extremist groups to open a new front on the country's borders.

 

"There have been several attempts to attack Israel's forces along the border," the prime minister said. "We will not allow any drizzle [of assaults], and if necessary, we will attack the enemy."

 

Both the IS-affiliated Khalid ibn al-Walid Army and the Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, formerly the al-Nusra Front, which is linked to al-Qaeda, have been present on Israel's borders for years, though they and the IDF had maintained a "live and let live" relationship until Sunday.

 

Since March 2011, when the war broke out, dozens of mortars have landed in Israeli territory as a result of spillover fighting. The IDF often responds to fire that crosses into Israel by striking Syrian army posts.

 

Israel has maintained a policy of holding Damascus responsible for all fire from Syria into Israel regardless of the source.

 

Israel has also reportedly carried out airstrikes against Hezbollah and the Syrian Army deep inside the country to prevent arms transfers, with some of those reportedly coordinated with the US.

 

Since Russia became heavily involved in Syria, Jerusalem and Moscow have held several top-level meetings aimed at making sure their forces do not become entangled in the labyrinthine civil war.

 

 

As Israel burns, are we looking at a new form of eco-terrorism? - http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Are-we-looking-at-a-new-form-of-terrorism-473566

 

With wildfires currently raging across Israel for a third consecutive day, many are concerned that this may be a new form of terrorism.

 

Fires from an estimated 220 points of origin have broken out throughout central and northern Israel since Wednesday and assessments by police have strengthened suspicions that many were deliberately set and were nationalistically motivated.

 

Boaz Ganor, founder and executive director of the International Institute for Counter- Terrorism, told The Jerusalem Post that, "even if a portion are intentional, it is not organized.

 

It's not that you have a terrorist organization giving orders to their members to carry out fire attacks, though maybe in a few hours you can have groups like Hamas claiming the fires."

 

But "one thing is clear," Ganor said. "It is not a new form of terrorism. Arson attacks and setting fires in populated areas or forests are a well known modus operandi of terrorist groups, and not only in Israel.

 

In the ninth issue of the English-language Inspire magazine, released by al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula in 2012, a significant portion was dedicated to attacking the United States by starting wildfires. The magazine listed instructions on how to ignite forest fires and the materials required, and instructs readers to look for two factors needed for a successful wildfire: dry conditions and high winds.

 

"When we define this phenomenon as 'fire intifada' - words used by the media, politicians and laypeople - we are overestimating the phenomenon," Ganor told the Post. Nevertheless, Ganor explained that the pictures on social media networks of flames in the center of Haifa and surrounding Jerusalem are "heaven for those who may want to join the so-called 'fire intifada,' especially if you add the false reasoning of revenge for banning the call to prayer."

 

Yoram Schweitzer, head of the program on terrorism and low-intensity conflict at the Institute for National Security Studies, told the Post that the term "fire intifada" should not be used, stressing that before accusing anyone there should be a full investigation into the fires.

 

The wildfires have been cheered by many on social media using the hashtag #IsraelBurns. Many postings saying that this is divine retribution for the pending controversial law to ban mosque loudspeakers for the Muslim call to prayer.

 

Last week Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal said that, "What the Israeli occupation state is doing at al-Aksa Mosque, as well as preventing the call to prayer in Jerusalem, is playing with fire. This created a fierce reaction in the Palestinian community and the whole of the Islamic nation."

 

Ganor says "we should not exaggerate the terrorist motivation behind the wildfires," stressing that "the conditions right now are perfect for fires, with an extended period of dry weather and strong winds."

 

Michael Horowitz, director of intelligence at Prime Source, a Middle East-based geopolitical consultancy firm, agreed. "It is too early to conclude that this is a "new form of terrorism," but it definitely can turn into that because of the virality of the trend," he told the Post, adding that "it's been praised by Hamas, and the hashtag "Israel is burning" is trending in Arabic. The mere perception of success can be enough to encourage copycat attacks."

 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday visited the Fire and Rescue Service's coastal district forward command center, where was briefed on the efforts to put out the fires, many of which he said are "deliberate acts of arson."

 

In Haifa, senior firefighter Shimon Ben Ner, told Army Radio that "I know for a fact that they tried to set fire to the department's station in Haifa deliberately, to cause the Haifa fire department to be paralyzed."

 

In 2010, 44 people were killed in Israel's worst forest fire. The three-day Mount Carmel forest fire destroyed thousands of hectares of land and forced some 17,000 people to be evacuated from their homes, as well as various prisons, hospitals and military jails.

 

Two residents of the Druse town of Daliat al-Carmel were arrested for allegedly attempting to start a fire in the Mount Carmel area. While police officials later said no wrongdoing had been established with certainty, many believe that arson was behind the Carmel forest blaze.

New Putin move to win a military base in Libya - http://www.debka.com/article/25804/New-Putin-move-to-win-a-military-base-in-Libya

 

Libyan Gen Khalifa Hafter arrived in Moscow Sunday, Nov. 26, with a request for Russian arms and military support for his army. He was welcomed in Moscow, which saw an opening for Russia to gain its first military base in North Africa. According to debkafile's military and intelligence sources, President Vladimir Putin began to envision a second Mediterranean base on the coast of Benghazi, twin to Hmeimim in Syria's Latakia. This one would accommodate Russian naval as well as air units and be located 700km from Europe.

 

The US-born Hafter, a general in the army of the late Muammar Qaddafi, carries the title of supreme commander of the Libyan army. However, Libya is today riddled with hundreds of militias vying for control. Haftar heads a powerful group that was once backed by the United States. But since refusing to recognize the government established by the UN in Tripoli, he relies mainly on the support of Egypt and some of the Gulf emirates for his eastern Libyan Benghazi stronghold.

 

Egypt and the UAE provide Hafter's army with air support from Egyptian bases in the Western Desert. It was their leaders who urged him to accept the Russian invitation to Moscow and bid for military assistance.

 

This was Hafter's second trip to Moscow. He was there in June and met with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and National Security Adviser Nikolai Patrushev. Then, the Kremlin was wary of extending military aid to the maverick Libyan general.  US, Italian and British special forces were at the time pressing a major offensive to drive ISIS out of the key Libyan port of Sirte. However, this offensive has still not achieved its goal.

 

Donald Trump's election as US president is already causing seismic rumbles in the region. Putin is now offering Hafter's army jet fighters attack helicopters, armored vehicles and assorted missiles as well as air support for fighting the Islamic State.

 

It is too soon to say whether the Russian leader's Libya initiative betokens an invitation to the new US president to work together in the Middle East, or he is cashing in on an uncertain transition period between the presidencies to build up a stack of chips ready to face Trump as a rival power.

 

At all events, Russian planes in Hmeimim are capable of covering the 1,500km distance to Libya, while the Russian carrier Admiral Kusnetzev is anchored not far away, off Syria's Mediterranean shore. Both are therefore available for operations in support of the Libyan general.

 

This would be the first time a Russian aircraft carrier went into action in this part of the Mediterranean.

 

The battles ongoing along the Mediterranean coast his week among the various militias, including Hafter's army, are in fact a tug-o'-war for control of Libya's oil fields. Libya's oil riches are certainly not absent from Putin's calculations. Moscow's assistance in helping his Libyan visitor gain the upper hand in this struggle could augur the first Russian stake in the Libyan oil industry.