How long will agreement delay Iran from getting nuclear bomb? - http://www.jpost.com/International/Analysis-The-bottom-line-382754
The decision to extend the deadline to clinch a nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 group of world powers until July 2015 is a defeat for Iran and an achievement for the US and the EU.
The Iranians threatened during the talks held in Vienna that if by Monday a final agreement is not reached and the sanctions imposed on them are not lifted, they would walk away. Iran's approach was "everything, now or never."
Yet they had to swallow their words and pride and agree to another extension - the second of its kind - while the sanctions are still in place and their nuclear program is restrained, as far as the number of centrifuges and the quantity of the enriched uranium are concerned.
True, the world powers (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States) agreed to unfreeze $700 million from Iran's frozen bank accounts all over the world every month. The P5+1 negotiators realized that they have to reward with a minor concession the moderates in Iran led by President Hassan Rouhani and his chief nuclear negotiator, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.
They didn't want them to return to Tehran with empty hands and pockets. But frankly, unfreezing $2 billion to $3b. out of $100b. in frozen assets is no more than throwing crumbs to a hungry person.
No doubt the moderates will be lashed out at by the radicals who would accuse them of failure. But as long as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who is calling the shots, is backing the negotiating team, there is a hope, though it is still slim, for a final agreement to be signed.
There is a simple reason why Iran backed out on the last day and agreed to more talks. Iran is anxious to rid itself of the sanctions hurting its economy, which has further deteriorated over the last few months with the drastic drop in oil prices.
The Iranian budget for 2014/15 is based on a $140 per barrel price - whereas the current price is $80 per barrel. This means a huge deficit in the Iranian budget. Iran can cover it by austerity measures - cutting subsidies of food, fuel and housing - but its leaders fear that such steps will bring upon them the wrath of the masses, which already suffer from the recession. Iran's government prefers to print money and raise inflation.
Yet one should not be mistaken. Iran has not given up its wish to get as close as possible - a screwdriver turn away - from a nuclear bomb. It is already almost there. It is three to six months away from assembling nuclear bombs if it decides in the future to turn from the negotiation table and "break out" to the bomb.
Iran already has the know-how and technology to build a bomb. Neither a diplomatic nor a technical deal, nor even a military assault, can take that away from Iran. With however many centrifuges and enriched uranium it will be allowed to keep, it is clear that Iran has reached the status of a nuclear threshold state.
Ultimately, any deal with Iran boils down to a single question: How long will an agreement delay Iran from assembling a nuclear bomb - one year? Two years? Three years? Watching actively from the sidelines are Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have been working in close covert and unprecedented cooperation to sabotage the deal. For these countries, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said numerous times, a bad deal - which the West is prepared to accept - is worse than having no deal at all. But it seems that these efforts have had limited effect, if any.
The realization that Iran has not made the required concessions and thus that the time and terms are not yet ripe at this stage for a comprehensive deal is to the credit of the US and EU governments. Certainly, Israel under Netanyahu (considering the bad blood between him and US President Barack Obama) is limited in the levers it can use to influence the process.
The outcome of the Vienna talks derives from three facts. First, the gaps between the sides are still big. Second, neither side is interested to end the diplomatic option. And finally, the alternative - of not having any deal, neither interim nor comprehensive - is much more dangerous to the world.
Hezbollah claims 'pinpoint' Iranian missiles added to its arsenal - By Nicholas Blanford - http://news.yahoo.com/hezbollah-claims-pinpoint-iranian-missiles-added-arsenal-191416188.html
The Lebanese Shiite militant group and close ally of Iran said it has received more advanced missiles, with greater range, as talks over Iran's nuclear program wind down in Vienna.
On the eve of a deadline in nuclear talks between six world powers and Iran, Lebanon's militant Shiite Hezbollah organization has revealed that it has acquired advanced Iranian missiles with "pinpoint accuracy" that it could use against Israel in any future war.
"They [the Israelis] are well aware that Hezbollah is in possession of missiles with pinpoint accuracy, and thanks to the equipment Hezbollah acquired, and with the Islamic Republic's support and Hezbollah's readiness for any future war, [the next] war will be much tougher for the Israelis," Naim Qassem, the deputy head of Hezbollah, said in an interview with Iran's Tasnim news agency.
Mr. Qassem's comments on Hezbollah's enhanced missile capabilities and the threat they pose to Israel came amid waning hopes that a deal could be struck by a Monday deadline in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council - Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States plus Germany, the so-called P5+1. The six leading nations want Iran to curb its uranium enrichment capacity, which could be used to make nuclear weapons, in exchange for a lifting of international sanctions.
By late Sunday, negotiators were reportedly looking for a way to extend the talks beyond the deadline.
Watching the Vienna talks closely from the sidelines is Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has said he is concerned that any final deal between the P5+1 and Iran will be insufficient to curb what he says is Iran's goal of building nuclear weapons. Iran says its nuclear program is for civilian use only.
In an Israeli cabinet meeting Sunday, Mr. Netanyahu said that Israel is delivering a "firm stance" to its allies in insisting that Iran should not be allowed to become a "nuclear threshold state".
"Therefore, no deal would be preferable to a bad deal that threatens Israel, the Middle East and all of humanity," he said.
If there is no diplomatic breakthrough in Vienna, the drumbeat for military action against Iran will almost certainly be heard once more, raising tensions in a region already ravaged by conflict and radicalism.
Over the past decade, Iran has turned Hezbollah into a powerful military force with weapons capabilities unmatched by any other non-state actor. In May, a top Israeli army general said Hezbollah's arsenal "would not shame any army in the world".
Iran's considerable military and financial investment in Hezbollah is intended to bolster Iran's deterrence against a possible attack on its nuclear facilities. If Israel chooses to bomb Iran's nuclear plants, it must first assess the response of Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon.
The stronger Hezbollah's military capabilities, the greater the stakes for Israel in launching an attack on Iran. Twenty years ago, Hezbollah's arsenal of unguided 12-mile range rockets allowed it to pepper parts of northern Israel only. Today, the missiles suspected to be in Hezbollah's arsenal could slam half a tonne of high-grade explosive into specific targets in Tel Aviv, such as the Israeli defense ministry or Ben Gurion International Airport.
Two weeks ago, a senior officer in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that Iran had provided Hezbollah with its indigenously produced Fateh A-110 short-range ballistic missiles.
"Considering the range of their [Hezbollah's] missiles, they are able now to attack targets from southern to northern parts of the occupied territories [Israel]," said Brigadier General Sayed Majid Moussavi, the IRGC's air defense commander, according to a report by the Iranian Fars news agency.
The specific missile system to which Moussavi and Hezbollah's Qassem referred is likely to be the 4th-generation version of the Fateh which has a range in excess of 186 miles and can carry a 1,430 pound warhead. Armed with that missile, Hezbollah could launch it from its camouflaged bases in southern Lebanon and hit Israel's nuclear reactor at Dimona in southern Israel, 140 miles south of the border with Lebanon, achieving a degree of reciprocity for any Israeli air strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.
The prophetic consequences of negotiating with the terrorist state - Bill Wilson - www.dailyjot.com
On November 25, 2013, the White House announced that it was entering into a deal with Iran to "stop" its nuclear program. A year later almost to the day, the White House efforts have yielded no fruit except that Iran has had a year longer to develop its weapon program. This is an indicator how the United States advanced the Ezekiel 38 prophecy clock. This Daily Jot was written on November 25 last year: One of the major players in the end time battle described in Ezekiel 38-39 is Persia--modern day Iran. The occupant of the Oval Office has effectively negotiated an agreement with Iran that could secure its end time position against Israel.
Ezekiel 38 names Iran as one of the main countries that joins Gog of Magog in storming the mountains of Israel in "that day." Verse 5: "Persia (modern Iran), Ethiopia (modern Sudan), and Libya (modern Libya) with them; all of them with shield and helmet." Verse 9: "Thou shall ascend and come like a storm, thou shalt be like a cloud to cover the land, thou and all thy bands, and many people with thee." Verse 16: "Thou shall come against my people of Israel, as a cloud to cover the land: it shall be in the latter days, and I will bring thee against my land, that the heathen may know me, when I shall be sanctified in thee, O God, before their eyes." America is not mentioned, but its leader has assured a form of participation.
The US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany agreed with Iran to lift some sanctions if Iran will slow down its nuclear activities and allow inspection of its facilities. But the ramifications are far greater. The Geneva agreement is described by the UK Independent: "It marks a victory for the Shia in their growing conflict with the Sunni Muslim Middle East. It gives substantial hope to Bashar al-Assad that he will be left in power in Syria. It isolates Israel. And it infuriates Saudi Arabia and Qatar and Kuwait and other Sunni Gulf States which secretly hoped that a breakdown of the Geneva nuclear talks would humiliate Shia Iran and support their efforts to depose Assad, Iran's only ally in the Arab world."
The US president has taken a giant step toward legitimizing a terrorist sponsoring state. While many will continue to point to the schism between Sunni and Shiite, Islam is first Islam and its unification is evident in the Ezekiel 38 passages. Even when the Lord returns and is defeating the forces against Israel, the division between Shia and Sunni is evident. Ezekiel 38:21 says, "And I will call for a sword against him throughout all my mountains, saith the Lord God: "every man's sword shall be against his brother." Notwithstanding, the US will suffer consequences for the decisions of its president to support Islam at the expense of Israel. Zechariah 12:9 says, "And it shall come to pass in that day, that I will seek to destroy all the nations that come against Jerusalem." The dawn of the mourning caused by the wicked bearing rule is soon upon us.
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