US-Russian discord over Syria stoked by Turkey's downing of the Russian warplane - http://www.debka.com/article/25038/US-Russian-discord-over-Syria-stoked-by-Turkey's-downing-of-the-Russian-warplane-
On Wednesday, Nov. 25, US President Barack Obama, in a conversation with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, said Turkey has the right to defend its territory just like any other country. He also said that the Russian Su-24 plane crossed the border and stayed in Turkey for 17 seconds. In other words, it was 1.6 km inside Turkish territory. However, when it was hit by an AIM-9X Sidewinder missile fired by the Turkish F-16, it was either right on the border or already inside Syrian territory. The pilots apparently landed on the Syrian side of the border and Moscow announced Wednesday that both were "in safe hands."
No matter how the incident is interpreted, it has generated five points that could lead to an aerial or naval clash between US and Russian forces in the Syrian theater.
1. It was the first time in 65 years, since 1950, that an American-made warplane from a NATO member state shot down a Russian warplane with an American-made air-to-air missile. This ramifications of this incident were no doubt seriously pondered at the NATO session called after the event.
2. Obama did not only come out in support of the Turkish version of the incident, but asserted that Putin did not speak the truth when he said that the plane was 1 km inside Syrian territory when it was shot down. The Russian president has not yet answered the charge, but there is no doubt that he will.
3. The military clash between Russia and Turkey has now become part of the personal contest between Obama and Putin over the future of Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Obama says that as long as Assad remains in power, not only will there be no agreement on how to end the war in Syria, but it will be impossible to defeat ISIS.
Putin says, the exact opposite: that it is impossible to end the war, or to defeat ISIS, without Assad as president. After those goals are achieved, he says, Assad's future may be discussed.
4. On Tuesday night, Nov. 24, Putin made his next move in the ramped-up chess match between the US and Russia in Syria.
The Russian general staff announced that the missile cruiser Moskva, one of the largest warships in the world, was ordered to move closer to the Syrian coast opposite the port of Latakia, near the Turkish border, and to "destroy any target posing danger."
debkafile's military sources say the Moskva serves as a floating missile base with a complement of advanced S-300 ground-to-air missiles.
This was a message for Ankara that any Turkish warplane nearing Syria, or flying in the Hatay province of southern Turkey - where the Su-24 incident occurred - was exposed to being shot down by Russian missiles. The Russian general command also announced that Russian warplanes would henceforth escort all Russian flights operating in Syrian airspace, including bombers.
5. Although he backed Erdogan verbally, Obama has not resorted to any military steps against Russia. But he does have a card up his sleeve. The USS Harry S. Truman carrier with strike force is on its way to the Mediterranean, having sailed from the US on Nov.16.
The Truman will join the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, whose planes started bombing ISIS targets in Iraq on Nov. 23. If Obama orders the Truman to enter the Syrian theater, there will be two warships from NATO member states facing Russian naval forces off the Syrian coast, led by the missile carrier Moskva.
Russian ground troops arrive in Syria in unprecedented military action - http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Report-Russian-ground-troops-arrive-in-Syria-in-unprecedented-military-action-435024
The Kuwaiti report adds that Russian forces have already taken over multiple strategic positions and have forced numerous rebel battalions to retreat.
In an unprecedented move, Russia has sent ground-troops into the Syrian battlefield in support of Bashar Assad as the dictator struggles to maintain his power in the continuous four-year-long civil war, according to a report by Kuwaiti daily al-Rai.
The report, which has not been substantiated by other sources, claims Russian military forces have been providing cover for T-90 tanks along with military air support which have attacked multiple strategic targets held by rebel forces in Idlib and Latakia.
In September, multiple US officials claimed that Russia had positioned about a half dozen tanks at a Syrian airfield at the center of a military buildup.
One US official said seven Russian T-90 tanks were observed at the airfield near Latakia, a stronghold of Syrian President Bashar Assad.
The Kuwaiti report adds that Russian forces have already taken over multiple strategic positions and have forced numerous rebel battalions to retreat. The report did not disclose whether there were Russian army casualties.
Over the last three months, Russia has steadily increased its participation in the Syrian domestic conflict, launching airstrikes from its bases in western Syria as it drops thousands of sorties on enemy targets.
Along with airstrikes, Russia has also increased its naval presence in the Mediterranean Sea along the Syrian coast while it coordinates with Iranian military forces and Hezbollah.
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on several past occasions that his country had no intention of sending boots on the ground to participate in the Syrian civil war.
If the report is correct, it could signify a dramatic shift in Russian policy, or merely be a one-time specific action.
Massive Russian blanket air bombardment is flattening Raqqa - http://www.debka.com/article/25032/Massive-Russian-blanket-air-bombardment-is-flattening-Raqqa
Russia has launched a merciless blanket air campaign, backed by Kalibr cruise missiles fired from the Caspian and Mediterranean Seas, for the object of wiping the Islamic State's Syrian center of Raqqa off the map, debkafile's military sources report.
Western and Middle East sources tracking the campaign since Friday, Nov. 20, report that at least 75 air sorties have been conducted and are systematically razing the town of 200,000 inhabitants 160km east of Aleppo, district by district, irrespective of civilian town dwellers.
Moscow wants the entire Middle East and Muslim world to see the price exacted for launching a terrorist attack on Russia after the downing of the Metrojet airliner that killed 224 people over Egyptian Sinai on Oct. 31. Russian bombers and cruise missiles rained death and destruction on the ISIS administration center after the jihadists claimed responsibility for that disaster and published photos of a soft drink can claimed to have been rigged as a bomb for blowing the plane up.
When the Russians are done, the town will be a pile of rubble, an intelligence source told debkafile.
The Russian defense ministry ran photos Friday of Russian technicians loading bombs on the Tupolev 95 bombers (dubbed "Bears" in the West). Ground crews marked the bombs "For ours," and "For Paris."
Last Tuesday, our military sources first revealed that the Tupolev's were taking off from Morozovsk air base in the Rostov district of southern Russia instead of from the Russian military enclave outside the Syrian town of Latakia.
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reported Friday that 15 Syrian oil facilities seized by ISIS had been destroyed this week and 525 of their trucks, costing the jihadists $1.5 million a day in revenue.
As for casualties, the published figure of 600 jihadists killed in one day is probably far below the real figure. Our sources report that the Islamist terrorists' death toll most probably runs into thousands with many more injured.
To sustain the hectic tempo of its aerial war, Moscow has doubled the number of bombers assigned to Syria from 34 two weeks ago to 69 by Saturday, Nov. 21.
Our military sources add that this augmented air power allows the Russians to expand their targets to other parts of Syria. On Friday, they renewed sorties against Syrian rebel forces holding the southern town of Deraa near the Jordanian border.
Turkey Shoots Down Russian Fighter Jet: Is this the Spark that Ignites a Messianic War? - By Adam Eliyahu Berkowitz -
https://www.breakingisraelnews.com/54625/turkey-shooting-down-russian-fighter-jet-spark-ignites-messianic-war-middle-east/#uVU181VT0CFkEmp1.97
"Son of man, set your face toward Gog of the land of Magog, the prince of Rosh, Meshech and Tubal, and prophesy against him and say, 'Thus says the Lord GOD, "Behold, I am against you, O Gog, prince of Rosh, Meshech and Tubal".' " (Ezekiel 38:2-3)
A Russian SU-24 fighter jet was shot down Tuesday morning by Turkey, with the Turkish government claiming the jet violated the country's airspace.
Turkish military sources told the media that after issuing 10 warnings in five minutes, Turkish F-16's opened fire, downing the Russian fighter jet. Photos of the incident clearly show two parachutes, indicating that the two pilots successfully ejected from the downed plane.
One pilot is believed to have been captured by Turkmen (Syrians of Turkish descent) forces in Syria while the fate of the second pilot remains unclear. Russian helicopters were seen searching for the airmen and there were reports of ground-fighting near the scene.
Tensions in the skies over Syria have been mounting since September when Russia increased its efforts to prop up the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. At the same time, the US-led coalition has been using the same airspace in its fight against the Islamic State (ISIS), with reports of Israel occasionally joining in.
Most recently, France responded to a terror attack in Paris by waging an air-campaign against ISIS strongholds in Syria. Russian presence in the region took on a new dimension last month when they set up advanced anti-air systems with a range of 250 miles.
This is not the first confrontation between Russian and Turkish air forces. Last month, a Russian MIG locked its weapons on Turkish planes and F-16's were scrambled to escort the Russians back across the border. This was followed a few days later by unconfirmed reports that Turkey shot down a Russian MIG. Also at that time, Turkey was reported to have shot down a Russian drone that violated their airspace.
Russian intervention in the region conforms with many prophecies that identify Russia as the source of the Gog and Magog messianic conflict. Rabbi Sholom Berger, also known as the Mishkolitz Rebbe, revealed in early October that the War of Gog and Magog would break out in Syria, but that the conflict would not be as catastrophic for Israel as originally prophesied. Other sources predict the Syrian conflict will have nuclear implications.
Tuesday's aerial showdown between world powers seems to fit a recent prediction by a 15-year-old boy in Israel who had a prophetic vision during a near-death experience. In his vision, he was told that the messianic war had already begun, and that all the pieces were in place, waiting for one event to ignite a global war.
Russia deploys S-400 missile battery in Syria, state media says - Planes flying in and out of Ben Gurion would be within Russian sights - By Judah Ari Gross -
http://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-deploys-s-400-missile-battery-in-syria-state-media-says/
Placing of sophisticated system in Latakia would grant Russia aerial control over Syria, Lebanon and Cyprus, and stretch as far as Israel's international airport
The Russian military has deployed its sophisticated S-400 missile battery and radar array in Syria, a Russian state-run media outlet claimed Thursday.
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had announced Wednesday that the system would be deployed in Latakia, in northwest Syria, in response to Turkey shooting down a Russian warplane the day before.
This nigh-impossible speed that would be required to bring in and activate the system in barely 24 hours has prompted some to question whether the S-400 system had been in place well before the Turkish military shot down the Su-24M aircraft, or if it is in place at all.
The advanced missile system, completed in 2007, is capable of detecting and destroying aircraft some 400 kilometers (250 miles) away. Its deployment in Latakia will grant Russia aerial control over practically all of Syria, Lebanon and Cyprus, over half of Turkey, parts of Iraq and Jordan - and, of course, Israel: Planes flying in and out of Ben Gurion International Airport - approximately 395 kilometers (245 miles) from Latakia - would be within Russian sights.
"Do we have something to fear? The answer is: yes and no," Russia expert Zvi Magen told The Times of Israel on Wednesday.
"If [the S-400] is indeed deployed," Magen explained before Moscow's state-run media announced the system's deployment, "it will be a game-changer."
The head of the US Air Force Central Command, Lt. Gen. Charles Brown Jr., downplayed the missile system's influence.
"It does complicate things a little bit, and we'll put some thought to it, but we still have a job to do here, and we're going to continue to do that job - to defeat Daesh [the Islamic State]," Brown told Air Force Times on Wednesday.
Though Russia feels it must project strength and fearlessness in response to the Turkish military shooting down a Su-24M fighter jet that allegedly ventured into Turkey's airspace on Tuesday, installing an S-400 missile system is a dramatic statement with repercussions that Russia would be better off avoiding, Magen said.
The S-400 Triumf system, also known as the SA-21 Growler, combines an advanced radar system, which can detect ballistic missiles and high- and low-flying aircraft from hundreds of miles away, with a variety of missiles capable of taking them out.
Anything from an F-15 fighter jet to a B-2 stealth bomber that comes into the range of the S-400 is at risk of being blown out of the sky.
For Israel, the threat is not one of inevitable conflict: Russia is, after all, not an enemy. The threat is in the potential, said Magen, now a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies.
When Russia brought its troops into Syria, Israeli generals met with their Russian counterparts to create a hotline to ensure that the IDF could continue to operate against Hezbollah without incident.
Today that protocol is, to an extent, voluntary. However, if the Russian army has in fact brought in the anti-aircraft missile defense system, Israel would then be forced to coordinate its attacks with the Russians, Magen noted.
The IDF refused to comment on the deployment of the S-400 and its possible ramifications on Israeli Air Force activity.
If the state-run Russian media reports are true, Israel will not have the freedom to send in aircraft to Syria unannounced; nor will the United States, United Kingdom, France and the other members of the coalition bombing the Islamic State in Syria.
"These measures are not much more than an upping of the Russian threat level towards Turkey and coalition aircraft operating over and around Syria," Tyler Rogoway, a contributor to the military news site Foxtrot Alpha, wrote on Wednesday.
"Deploying S-400 batteries means any aircraft operating at altitude within about 250 miles of them will be at risk of engagement," Rogoway said.
The S-400 system will be a Sword of Damocles over the IAF's head - ever present, always ready to knock an unsuspecting Israeli plane out of the sky, hew indicated. "If it gets there, [the S-400] would just change the rules of the game," he said.
Russian Defense Minister Shoigu's threat to deploy the S-400 into one of the most contentious regions in the world had already stirred ample controversy. Actually bringing in the defense system would be an aggressive move that could invite heavy international backlash - and for no good reason, suggested Magen.
"They already have enough anti-aircraft systems in the area that are good enough to threaten the Turks," Magen said.
But the main obstacle to aggressive Russian action is this: Russia cannot attack Turkey without facing a response from Ankara's fellow NATO members, he noted.
"Section five of the NATO agreement states that if a member of NATO is attacked, the other members are required to assist. An attack on Turkey by Russia would basically be an invitation to all of NATO to deal with the Russians," Magen said.
"That's not in Russia's interest, nor is it within its capabilities," he added.
Even if Russia were not currently engaged in military conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, Russian President Vladmir Putin would be loath to enter into a conflict with the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and 24 other member states. But with the Russian military already preoccupied, a confrontation with NATO members would be even more disastrous.
"Before they do this, they will have to re-examine [their decision] thoroughly," Magen said.
In place of a military response, he said, Putin will likely continue with the diplomatic and economic steps he has already taken against Turkey.
"Maybe he'll take advantage of an opportunity to hit them here and there," Magen said, "but the response will likely be political and economic, not a military conflict."
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