IDF, Russian, Iranian forces on war alert for Hezbollah attack on Israel - and backlash - http://www.debka.com/article/25120/IDF-Russian-Iranian-forces-on-war-alert-for-Hizballah-attack-on-Israel---and-backlash
The IDF and all of the armies involved in the Syrian civil war, namely those of Russia, Syria and Iran, went on their highest war alert on Thursday, Dec. 31 when all their intelligence organizations reported that Hassan Nasrallah could not be stopped from attacking Israel, in revenge for the assassination of Samir Quntar in Damascus on December 20.
More than one intermediary visited Beirut to avert the Hezbollah attack and its deadly fallout, including a former senior officer of the German BND foreign intelligence service. According to debkafile's intelligence sources, Gerhard Conrad, late of the BND and incumbent director of the European Union's Intelligence and Situation Center, was given this urgent mission by Chancellor Angela Merkel.
He came away from a meeting with Nasrallah on Dec. 29, with the news that the Hezbollah chief was not open to persuasion and the attack was already underway.
Conrad has excellent connections in the Arab world, especially in Syria and Lebanon. Seven years ago, he acted as intermediary between Israel and Hezbollah for negotiating the recovery of the bodies of two fallen IDF soldiers, Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser, in exchange for the handover of that same Hezbollah high-up Samir Quntar and other jailed and convicted Arab terrorists.
The German spy-diplomat then established personal connections with a shadowy figure, Wafik Safa, who is in charge of Hezbollah's intelligence and security network and a close crony of Nasrallah.
Conrad used those connections again in 2011 to broker the release of Gilead Shalit from Hamas captivity.
It was Safa he arranged for him to meet Nasrallah in Beirut Tuesday. He found the Hezbollah chief unshakeable in his determination to make Israel pay for Quntar's death, even at the cost of a painful backlash against the Shiite group's terrorists in Syria and Lebanon.
He was unmoved by the warning issued by Israel's chief of staff, Lieut. Gen. Gady Eisenkott, on Monday, just hours before the Conrad mission. Eisenkott said, "Just as we have proven in the past, we know how to strike anyone who wishes to harm us. Our enemies know they will suffer grave consequences if they try to undermine our security."
Upon receipt of the German emissary's report on the meeting, Eisenkott, his deputy, Maj. Gen. Yair Golan, and OC Northern Command, Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, inspected the preparedness of the IDF's northern border defenses for all contingencies.
They took into account a scenario, whereby Nasrallah would take advantage of the stormy weather forecast for the weekend in Syria, Lebanon and Israel, to strike Israel, in the knowledge that the heavy rain and snow would impede Israeli air force activity and give the Hezbollah operation a tactical edge.
Russian military and Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces in Syria have taken into account that a Hezbollah attack will not go unanswered by Israel and that the IDF would most likely hit back at Hezbollah on Syrian soil, thus ushering in the New Year with a new whirlwind.
Concentrated Russian air strikes may open Syrian-Hezbollah door to Israeli border - http://www.debka.com/article/25116/Concentrated-Russian-air-strikes-may-open-Syrian-Hizballah-door-to-Israeli-border
Israel's military and political leaders became intensely anxious Tuesday, Dec. 29, when they saw how concentrated Russian air strikes were swiftly dislodging anti-Assad rebels from southern Syria and beginning to open the door for the Syrian and Hezbollah armies to come dangerously close to the Israeli border.
debkafile's military and intelligence sources report that Russian air strikes in other parts of the country have tapered off. Instead, heavy Russian bombardments are giving the combined Syrian-Hezbollah force its first chance to recover Sheikh Maskin, the southern town housing the Syrian Army's 82nd Brigade which has been passing from hand to hand for months. If the rebels lose that fierce battle, the way will be clear for the combined pro-Assad force to advance on the two key southern towns, Deraa and Quneitra on the Golan.
The rebel groups assaulted by the Russian air force Tuesday included moderate, pro-Western, pro-Israeli militias, such as the Southern Front and the First Column. Both suffered heavy casualties.
IDF unease as a result of Russia's aerial intervention in the fighting in southern Syria is rising in proportion to the current military tensions with Hezbollah. If the Lebanese Shiite terrorists manage to get the late Samir Quntar's anti-Israel terror Front for the Liberation of Golan up and running, the Israeli air force would be severely hampered in launching its own strikes against this enemy by the dozens of Russian bombers using the same patch of sky without pause.
On the face of it, Moscow and Jerusalem make a show of their smooth air force collaboration in Syrian air space. But this picture is wide of the situation: The Russian air force omitted to notify Israel ahead of its massive bombardment close to its border Tuesday.
Some Israeli official circles suspect that Moscow is deliberately bringing Israel under pressure to accept a deal for southern Syria. One of President Vladimir Putin's main objects from the outset of Russian's military buildup in Syria was to eradicate the rebels in the South and the threat they posed to the Assad regime in Damascus.
More than once, Putin suggested to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu that they work out a Russian-Israeli deal for that part of Syria. The Israeli leader was unresponsive, mainly because Israel is bound by prior understandings to coordination with the US, Jordan and moderate Syrian rebel groups. A deal with Moscow would counter those understandings.
However, The concentrated air strikes in the border region is intended by the Kremlin, according to some views, not just to push the rebels out, but to twist Israel's arm for settling the issue with Moscow.
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