Israel's Darkening Horizon - By Matt Ward -
Relations between Israel and Russia are on a knife edge. Events in the Middle East are moving at a very fast pace. With the downing of a Russian IL-20 reconnaissance plane on September 17th, it would seem that Russia, sensing an opportunity, is trying to both reset relations with Israel as well as redraw the operational limits of their own involvement in Syria and the Middle Eastern theatre. They are doing this whilst at the same time drastically curtailing Israel's ability to act against her ever-more-entrenched regional enemies in Syria, Iran and Hezbollah.
Events began on September 17th with an Israeli Defense Force attack on a Syrian military facility located in Latakia. It was believed by Israel to be housing a lethal, high precision weapons systems bound for use by Hezbollah in Lebanon, something that has always been a very clear red line for the Jewish State.
After the successful airstrikes, the Israeli F-16 warplanes were engaged by Syrian air defenses. As a direct consequence of Syria's wide-ranging and highly imprecise anti-air fire, a Russian IL-20 military plane with 15 Russian servicemen on board was shot down over the Mediterranean. All Russian servicemen died. This has created a firestorm for Israel, one which has the potential to severely impede her operational capabilities, not only in Syria but also in her ability to successfully defend her own homeland.
Immediately following the downing of the Russian IL-20 plane, Israel dispatched senior IDF commanders to Russia with the aim of clarifying that the responsibility for this unforeseen tragedy lay squarely at the door of the Syrian government. To that end, Major General Amikam Nurkin travelled to Moscow to brief senior Russia officers personally, presenting them with the data and findings from the IDF's own investigation.
To be blunt, the IDF's conclusions were rebuffed. That is an understatement. After concluding its own investigation, the Russian military came to the conclusion that it was in fact Israel that was solely to blame for the downing of the Russian IL-20, not Syria, and that Israel was exclusively to blame for the loss of the 15 Russian servicemen.
This accusation has rocked the IDF, and the shock felt within the Israeli military has been exacerbated by the increasingly bellicose accusations and charges laid against the IDF from the Russian military and its Defense Ministry.
On Sunday, 23rd September, the Russian Defense Ministry publicly gave its own account of what happened on September 17th. The Russian Defense Ministry lays the entire blame for the incident squarely with the IDF. Worse still, Russian Major General Igor Konashenkov has openly claimed that the IDF has actively misled Russia about the location of its planned airstrikes in Syria, and that because of this the Russian IL-20 was prevented from being moved to a safe zone. Russia is declaring this as a direct breach of the 2015 Russian-Israeli agreements made to try to prevent clashes in Syria between Russian armed forces and Israel's.
But Major General Igor Konashenkov wasn't finished there. He went further. General Konashenkov continued by asserting that Israeli F-16 fighter jets had used the IL-20 as a "shield" against Syrian air defense systems, thereby purposely endangering the aircraft and all the Russian personnel on board. In so declaring, he has directly contradicted the IDF's claim that the Israeli F-16's were already home in Israeli airspace when the IL-20 was hit and shot down. He is publicly asserting that Israel lied to them.
The Russian briefing concluded ominously by claiming that Israeli military personnel have acted with "criminal negligence," and that they are exclusively to blame for the loss of Russian life.
The Russians, as a consequence, have now declared electronic war on Israel over the skies of both Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean. In quick time, the Russian military has armed Syria with the S-300 air defense system and will also immediately start jamming all "enemy" navigation in the Eastern Mediterranean.
According to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, the Syrian electronic air defense capabilities will now be increased to the same levels as the Russian forces currently operating within Syria.
Shoigu continued, "Russia will jam satellite navigation, on-board radars and communications systems of combat aircraft which attack targets in the Syrian territory, in the regions over the Mediterranean Sea bordering with Syria."
Shoigu then concluded with a thinly veiled threat to Israel, stating that if these new measures "fail to cool hotheads, we will have to respond in line with the current situation."
This is certainly a huge blow to Israel and will severely impede Israel's ability to act within the Syrian theatre. The temperature in the Middle East has just shot up a number of notches. This is the first time in history that one nation has openly declared electronic warfare against another nation-state.
To this end, the first deliveries of Russian Krasukha-4 electronic warfare units have now been delivered to Syria. As well as neutralizing ground and airborne radars, these units can also jam and severely disrupt spy satellites. This system can jam all forms of communications systems, disable guided missiles, aircraft and radars, and be used as a platform to attack enemy electronic warfare capable units. These combined Russian measures will have the result of significantly hampering Israel's ability to operate successfully within Syria, or even to monitor at least to the same degree, what is actually going on there "on the ground."
Netanyahu has declared that, irrelevant of these new measures, Israel will continue to take the action necessary to prevent the embedding of Iran and Hezbollah in Syria. Such grand statements are meaningless though as even Netanyahu himself, speaking on the sidelines of the recent UN summit, openly acknowledged that this "accident with the IL-20 may have serious consequences" - many of which may be as yet unforeseen. Netanyahu's comments are an explicit acknowledgement that the dynamic in Syria may have changed significantly.
The delivery of these new S-300 missiles, whilst not the most cutting edge weaponry available, will certainly complicate Israel's ability to act unimpeded in Syria. As Israeli journalist Barak Ravid observed, the move "could limit the Israeli air force's freedom of operation in Syria." (1).
The delivery of these missiles and Russia's declaration that they will interfere electronically with Israeli electronic warfare capabilities matter. They matter because, short of the obvious military impediment Israel now faces, the move also threatens to unravel a military and political alliance between Israel and Russia that has thus far kept them, and more importantly the other major world powers, backing up both sides from coming into direct conflict in Syria.
Israel will now have to be exceptionally careful and will need to calculate each and every potential intervention against Iran and Hezbollah in Syria in a way it has not had to before. Given that Israel has already conducted hundreds of operations in Syria and will likely continue to do so in the future, the likelihood of an Israeli jet being shot down by enhanced Syrian air defense systems has now significantly risen. If such an eventuality does arise and Israeli planes are shot down, or pilots injured or captured, then the likelihood that this may in turn provoke a wider regional flare-up increases dramatically. Israel, Iran, Syria, Russia and the United States could all be dragged into open and direct confrontation.
The bottom line for how this crisis concludes rests with Putin, although at this stage it appears that the outcome will be a severe restriction of Israel's freedom of action over Syria. Amongst all the uncertainty though, one thing does however remain unchanged; Iran is still, without question, absolutely determined to continue transferring arms to Hezbollah.
The real test will be when Israeli intelligence, at some point in the near future, suggests that Iran is once again attempting to smuggle sophisticated arms and weaponry into Lebanon. What happens then, when Israel feels absolutely obliged to act? Will they? And if they do, what will Russia do? And will this be containable?
Only time will tell.
"Poor" Syria! - Jim Fletcher -
For three years, Israel has done a tremendous job of denying two things to the Iranians: further military buildup in Syria, and the delivery of weapons to Hezbollah.
In short: don't mess with Israel.
This week, Russia ratcheted-up the tensions by announcing the delivery to the Syrians of an anti-missile system known as S-300. This comes on the heels of the shooting down of a Russian plane on September 17, in which 15 Russians were killed. They blame Israel, while Israel blames Syria and Iran.
This is Russia's war-by-proxy with Israel. Very ominous, since the two sides haven't engaged in the region since the Yom Kippur War. Then, as in the Six Day War, it is an open secret that Israeli pilots engaged Russian MiG fighters. The latter lost.
Soon, Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with Donald Trump for the fifth time. He has also been in contact with Russian strongman Putin. It is heartening that Israel has a leader who will not place others above his no. 1 priority of protecting the citizenry of his own country.
"We will continue to act to prevent the Iranian military build up in Syria and to continue with the security coordination between the IDF and the Russian army," he said.
It must be kept in mind that Israel is the only country in the Middle East that is truly under threat by neighbors. It is true that Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and other Gulf States are worried about Iran. But Israel is the only one that is confined to narrow and small borders, while facing a potentially lethal threat. This time from the north.
Yet, let us consider how amazing the geopolitical situation is now in Israel. They have a solid working relationship with Egypt, whose military leader el-Sisi seems not to be a Jew-hating warlord along the lines of Nasser.
Also, though I take a more negative view of Jordan's King Abdullah than some, Jordan is no threat to Israel. Iraq is also, for the time being, no longer a real military threat to Israel.
That leaves the north. And all the good news doesn't negate the fact that two of the worst regimes on the planet are cooperating in Syria. That is indeed problematic for Israel.
The most important factor though is that the Israelis have not and will not back down. They will not allow Iran any real foothold.
It is very problematic that where the "militant" controlled town of Idlib is concerned, Russia, Iran, and Turkey are negotiating the status of that place. Isn't that amazing? Syria's Bashar Assad has no real authority or control in his own country, so three menacing powers are doing it for him. Can't bode well for Syrian independence going forward.
American forces are operating east of the Euphrates, and of course the Iranians are demanding their removal. The forces are a serious deterrent and President Trump and his team are to be commended for committing troops for stability. Trump is working closely with the Israelis to limit the damage that can be done by Iran and others.
I believe the Big Three of Russia, Turkey, and Iran would love to carve-up Syria. Russia of course has long coveted a warm-weather seaport, so a presence along the Mediterranean coast would fit the bill. Iran would love a chunk of territory in the east. For these reasons and many others, it's vital to the security of the region that they remain opposed by Israel and America.
It remains a lesson for all of us not to project too far ahead. It is fascinating to think that, for example, Iran's regime could be overthrown by the people. At the same time, that might give Iraq an opening to reassert itself in the region.
God knows what will happen. In the meantime, we have a front-row seat to all the great end-times prophecies.
We are blessed.
Syria Threatens to take Golan from Israel - By Adam Eliyahu Berkowitz - https://www.breakingisraelnews.com
David stationed garrisons in Aram of Damascus, and the Arameans became tributary vassals of David. Hashem gave David victory wherever he went. II Samuel 8:6 (The Israel Bible�)
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem recently addressed the UN General Assembly, accusing Israel of supporting terrorism while warning that his country intends to "liberate" the Golan Heights from Israel.
"Israel supported terrorist organizations in southern Syria and intervened to protect them," Muallem said. "Just as we liberated southern Syria from terrorists, we are determined to restore the Golan Heights to the borders set in 1967."
Syrian state media often describe Israeli air strikes against Syrian or Iranian military sites as support for terrorist groups.
"We call on Israel to comply with UN resolutions and allow the Palestinians to establish their state," Muallem concluded.
After Arab aggression led to the 1967 Six-Day War, Israel conquered almost 700 square miles of territory in the Golan Heights from Syria, ending years of the ongoing and indiscriminate shelling of Israeli towns in the valley below. In the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the Syrian army overran much of the Golan but was finally repelled at great cost by the IDF. The Golan was annexed by Menachem Begin's Israeli government in 1981.
"We welcome any assistance with reconstruction from those countries that were not part of the aggression on Syria," he said. "The countries that offer only conditional assistance or continue to support terrorism, they are neither invited nor welcome to help."
Muallem referred to the U.S.-led multi-national coalition currently in his country fighting Al Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIS) as "occupying forces" and demanded their immediate evacuation.
"They must withdraw immediately and without any conditions," he told the UN General Assembly.
The U.S. currently has approximately 2,000 troops in Syria. Russia also has a significant military presence in Syria, supporting the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.
There have been several attempts by the Israeli government over the years to arrive at a peace agreement with Syria, many of which included ceding the Israeli Golan to Syria. Iran's involvement in Syria over the years has made this form of peace agreement unlikely. In May 2009, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that returning the Golan Heights would turn it into "Iran's front lines which will threaten the whole state of Israel."
In his address to the UN, Muallem invited Syrian civilians who fled the country during their ongoing seven-year civil war to return.
"Conditions are now present for the voluntary return of refugees," Muallem said. "We have called upon the international community and humanitarian organizations to facilitate these returns. They are politicizing what should be a purely humanitarian issue."
It is estimated that more than 500,000 people have been killed in Syria's civil war. In 2016, from a pre-war population of 22 million, the UN identified 13.5 million Syrians requiring humanitarian assistance, of which more than 6 million were internally displaced within Syria, and an additional five million were refugees outside of Syria.
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