The fall of Homs, bad news for Israel - Danny Rubinstein - http://www.i24news.tv/en/opinion/140512-the-fall-of-homs-bad-news-for-israel
This weekend, an odd silence prevailed in Homs, Syria's third largest city: odd in the eyes of the remaining few thousand residents in the city struck by war, destruction and famine. For more than two years, they had been accustomed to the sounds of gunfire and explosions, to the unrelenting bloodshed. And suddenly, quiet. The world's media was filled with such descriptions in recent days. The calm was the result of an agreement, brokered by the UN and Iranian representatives, to evacuate about 1,500 rebels, who left the city in organized convoys. They were replaced by Syrian soldiers, who, according to Syrian state television, "cleared the entirety of Homs from the terrorist bruises."
Homs has been called "the capital of the revolution" by rebels based in Sunni Muslim districts of the city which was once home to over a million inhabitants. Minorities of the Alawite and Christian neighborhoods were the first to flee from the city. After them came the residents of neighborhoods that turned into battlefields, who have very slowly begun returning to their ruined city in recent days. TV stations across the globe show them standing astonished in front of their demolished homes, trying to extract their content.
The question now is whether this is a turning point in the civil war, now in its fourth year, which is, in fact a proxy war: on the one side, the Syrian army, supported by Iran and Russia and aided by Shiite groups from Iraq and Lebanon; on the other side, Sunni insurgents backed by the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and assisted by the United States, Turkey and Jordan. There are those who sum up this equation as a struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran for control of the region, in general, and the Persian Gulf, in particular.
Syria is divided more or less between the areas controlled by the government, mainly the axis of Damascus-Homs and the coast, and the rebel-controlled areas - mainly the north, the Aleppo region and the eastern desert. Despite the Assad regime's achievement in Homs, the final outcome is still far from decided and all attempts to foresee the end are futile.
More than two years ago, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said the Assad regime had only a few months left. I even speculated that it was a matter of weeks. Meanwhile, Ehud Barak is out of politics, while Bashar al-Assad seems well ensconced in his palace. In three weeks he will hold elections, which are considered a particularly bad joke.
Even Israel has a role in the struggles within Syria. At least three times in the past two years, Israeli warplanes have attacked Syrian military targets and convoys transporting arms to the Shiite Hezbollah organization in Lebanon. Israel has also treated hundreds of wounded (mostly civilians) who crossed the border to seek help. Israel has not disclosed their identities.
But there is no need to engage in speculation. If Iran and Hezbollah are on the side of Assad's army - obviously Israel is on the other side, that of the rebels. But among the rebels are some of the most dangerous fundamentalist Islamic groups in the world, an embarrassment and concern for both the United States and Israel. Even among the rebel units there are those who have reservations about the partnership with the Islamists and there are even some who dare to see Israelis as an ally. For example, Syrian activist Kemal Leboani wrote on a news site: "Israel is not our enemy anymore."
Against this backdrop, the achievement of the Syrian army in Homs is bad news for Israel, as it is bad news for Saudi Arabia, the United States, Turkey and Jordan. Israel has an additional concern, and that is the strengthening of Hezbollah.
Besides the harassment of Hamas rockets from Gaza, no Arab army poses a danger to Israel; neither Egypt;s in the south, nor Jordan's and Iraq's in the east, or the armies of Syria and Lebanon in the north. But now there is another army, Hezbollah. These Shiite units in southern Lebanon, with an array of tens of thousands of missiles capable of reaching any target in Israel, are not small guerrilla groups any longer - they are a real army - trained and organized and now with the experience gained in fighting alongside Syria's army against the rebels and winning most battles. Hezbollah's army played an important, perhaps decisive, role in the recent achievements of Assad's army and the victory in Homs, a victory that is troubling Israel.
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