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Friday, May 9, 2014

RUSSIAN UPDATE: 5.9.14

The Ukraine Headache

In 2012, President Barack Obama made a campaign strategy out of mocking Mitt Romney for warning about the growing threat in Moscow. Two years later, the same Democrats who laughed along at Romney's supposed naivete are now trying to paint not only Romney, but true conservatives, as somehow cheering Russian President Vladimir Putin's aggression because it comes at Obama's expense. Sorry, but no one is buying it.
Ukraine is a lost cause. Whether we want to acknowledge it, it's as clear as the Russian bombers making low-altitude flights over Kiev. While Obama and the European Union dither with meaningless discussions over even more meaningless economic sanctions, Putin is staging an airshow over the Ukrainian capital.
Barring a rather unlikely turn events in which Putin suddenly remembers that Russia+Power-Drunk Dictator routinely = bad, the Ukraine is looking at life as a client state in the throwback style of the old Warsaw Pact countries. They'll enjoy nominal independence on matters like parking tickets and public drunkenness, but the heavy lifting will be done for them - and to them - in Moscow. It's theoretically possible that the Ukrainian nation will rise up and maintain its true independence; but that version of the old David-and-Goliath tale pits David against not only Goliath, but a couple of Philistine tank divisions.
Ultimately, impact of the loss of Ukrainian independence is a matter of perspective. From a diplomatic perspective, Ukraine was unstable, somewhat isolated and, perhaps most importantly, not a member of NATO - meaning Ukraine was a not a signatory to any mutual defense treaties involving NATO (mostly American) men or materiel. From a geopolitical perspective, Ukraine had struggled in the post-Soviet years, remained an unsteady neighbor and, perhaps most importantly, shares borders with four NATO member states - meaning it provided a buffer between Russia and some of our newer pals. Those newer pals include places like Poland, Hungary and Romania - none of which is in any hurry to relive the Hammer and Sickle's glory days. From the perspective of the interested observer, the likely dismantling of Ukrainian independence is a sad tale of a nation that escaped one of the most diabolical empires in human history, only to be dragged back into its resurgence. Everyone deserves at least a chance to be free, and they lost theirs just when they got their fingers on it. From the perspective of most Americans, Ukraine sounds like something a woman cites as an exit strategy from a bad date. "I've really had a great time, but I've got a terrible Ukraine."
But Putin's victory in the 2014 Crimean Shirtless Posedown, combined with the rhetorical knuckle sandwich he force-fed to Obama last year in Syria, proffers a cautionary tale. The Bear is back. And while I'm not the first to say it, I can't help but notice that the Democrats are burying Putin's Crimean gambit under piles of lapdog media spin. While Obama can't be fairly blamed for the Russian roll into Crimea, there is no doubt that a resurgent Putin was emboldened by Obama's asses-and-elbows approach to foreign policy - not to mention his thumbs-and-pinkies approach to explaining his actions to the American public.
Putin might be a pet cat and a monocle away from being the villain in the next "Austin Powers" movie, but he's not stupid. Putin has noticed Obama's ham-fisted mishandling of the Benghazi massacre. Putin has also noticed that Obama has somehow managed to engineer a policy that involves both targeting and arming al-Qaida. Putin knows Obama is too busy spying on his people and his friends, and then lying about it to both, to focus on Putin's behavior. Hell, Obama is too busy getting his lies confused to focus on anything for particularly long - especially during the summer months, when the golf course calls early and often. And Putin no doubt remembers the Syrian spanking he gave Obama last year.
Russia's de facto annexation of Ukraine might not be the reignition of the Cold War, but it is a frosty challenge from our old Cold War nemesis. And while Russia's reabsorption of the Ukraine - like its recent digestion of Ukrainian neighbor state Georgia - requires no military action on America's part, the worry now should be whether Putin's appetite is sated or whether he's eyeing vacation properties closer to the Mediterranean than the Black or Caspian seas.
-Ben Crystal
Russian Strategic Bombers On West Coast: Did They Take Down Los Angeles Air Traffic Control Systems? - Mac Slavo - http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/russian-strategic-bombers-on-west-coast-did-they-take-down-los-angeles-air-traffic-control-systems_05062014

 
With the situation in the Ukraine escalating and the US continuing to call for sanctions against Russia's financial and political elite, Vladimir Putin is now not only mobilizing tens of thousands of troops on his Western front, but sending intercontinental strategic bombers across the Pacific Ocean. According to the US military, it's the first time since the cold war that Russia's incursions have come this close to America.
 
What's even more alarming is that Russia is making it clear that any attack on the Motherland would likely lead to widespread bombardment of western interests. Nuclear capable Russian bombers have been spotted all over the world as of late including in Guam, Japan, South Korea and Europe.
 
Gen. Herbert Carlisle, Commander of United States Air Forces in the Pacific, acknowledged a significant increase in the activities by Russian long-range strategic aircraft flying along the California coast.
 
There was no comment about whether the aircraft were nuclear capable, but it has not been since the Cold War ended in the early 1990s that Russian patrols have skirted the West Coast and California.
 
Other than fleets of Russian bombers making passes in close proximity to U.S. interests, the military hasn't reported anything else out of the ordinary.
 
But last week something weird happened in Los Angeles and it likely involved a high altitude fly over.
 
Air traffic controllers at Los Angeles LAX airport reported that their computer systems were overwhelmed and crashed, leading to hundreds of flight delays and cancellations across the country. According to an NBC News investigation the outage was caused by the flyover of a U-2 spy plane. Apparently the 1950s class spy plane entered LAX airspace at about 60,000 feet and its jamming systems crashed not only the primary air traffic control systems used to monitor and direct commercial airlines, but the back up systems as well.
 
A U-2 spy plane is being blamed for a software glitch at a Californian air traffic control center which led to delays earlier this week.
 
According to NBC News, the U-2 was flying at 60,000 feet, but air traffic control computers were attempting to keep it from colliding with planes that were actually miles beneath it.
 
The computers at the L.A. Center are programmed to keep commercial airliners and other aircraft from colliding with each other.
 
The spy plane's altitude and route apparently overloaded a computer system called ERAM, which generates display data for air-traffic controllers. Back-up computer systems also failed
 
But within days of the original report, disseminated across broadcast networks all over America, the Air Force officially denied that it was a U-2 spy plane, claiming they found the glitch but provided no reason for what caused it:
 
 
It's still not clear why the U-2 flew into the L.A. Center's airspace, or why it didn't give advance warning of the flight, as per usual. According to NBC News, the nearby Edwards Air Force Base and NASA's Neil A. Armstrong Flight Research Center (located at Edwards) "have been known to host U-2s."
 
But an Edwards rep said no such planes are assigned to Edwards, and a NASA rep said that none of their U-2 planes were flying on Wednesday.
 
The U.S. Air Force, on the other hand, confirmed that it had sent out a U-2 plane that day - but denied to that the spy plane caused the airport confusion. The Air Force Times has more:
 
Pentagon spokesman Army Col. Steve Warren confirmed that there was a U-2 operating in the area. The Air Force "filed all the proper flight plan paperwork ... in accordance with all FAA regulations" and was conducting a routine training operation, Warren said. The FAA has issued a statement saying technicians have "resolved the specific issue that triggered the problem," but the agency did not say what the problem was. FAA spokeswoman Laura Brown declined to comment about whether the U-2 was connected to the computer problems at the control center.
 
With the revelation this week that Russia has deployed strategic bomber fleets for fly-by's along our West Coast to gather intelligence and test their capabilities, is it possible that someone flipped a switch to see what would happen?
 
The Air Force likely knows what caused the outage but refuses to share details, which suggests that either the United States was engaged in a military exercise and they want to keep it under wraps, or, it was the Russians and going public could further inflame the already heated geo-political climate.
 
Both the United States and Russia have advanced stealth and jamming systems, either of which may have been responsible for the LAX outage. But one particular technology stands out, especially considering that Airforce technicians had to step in to resolve the issue.
 
The United States, Russia and China have been testing non-nuclear capable electro-magnetic pulse technology that can be deployed either via a missile or a attached to an airplane while it travels in proximity to a particular target. Unlike the nuclear-trigger Super EMP Weapons capable of taking down the electrical infrastructure of an entire country if detonated about 200 miles above the earth's surface, non-nuclear EMP technology is a line-of-sight weapon that can be directed at a specific city, building or computer system.
 
In the United States a similar weapon is called CHAMP (High Power Microwave Advanced Missile Project ) and is manufactured by Boeing.
 
Granted, no missile was detected over the United States within the time frame that LAX computers were taken out of service, it's important to keep in mind that CHAMP, while advanced, is known to everyone and the technology is already at least half a decade old.
 
It's certainly possible, and probably likely, that Russia has similar technologies and ones that do not necessarily require a missile to deliver its "payload."
 
With bombers flying right along our coast, did Russia take the opportunity to utilize a new advanced technology to target specific components of the air traffic control system, sending it into a frenzy?
 
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