IRAN UPDATE: 5.2.14

The Iranian outposts on Israel's border - Yossi Melman - http://www.i24news.tv/en/opinion/140501-the-iranian-outposts-on-israel-s-border

 
During the surprising and successful Syrian attack (simultaneously coordinated with Egypt) aimed at regaining the Golan Heights from Israel on October 6, 1973, one could hear on military radios the panicked voices of Israeli military commanders from their bunkers and posts: "The Syrians are on the fences." Forty years after that war, the Syrians are once again dangerously close to Israel's fences, though this time they are different Syrians, with a different support network.
 
When the Syrian civil war broke out in March 2011, then-Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak predicted in his "I can never be wrong attitude" that President Bashar al-Assad's regime would totaled by the rebels "within three weeks". Three years later, Assad is still holding onto power and has recently even strengthened his positions in various parts of the country.
 
What concerns Israel, however, is that the trend has reversed along the 100-kilometer strip of the Israeli-Syrian border, running from Mount Hermon in the northern Golan to the El Hama enclave in the southern part of the Golan, near the border with Jordan. In this area, the Syrian army has lost important positions to the rebels, some of whom belong to the extreme Islamist movement of Jabhat al-Nusra. This group is a mixed bag of Syrian and foreign fighters who infiltrated from neighboring Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey to join the "holy" battle to unseat Assad.
 
Two important developments mark the consolidation of al-Nusra's Jihad's hold on that area. The first was the seizure of Tel (hill) al-Ahmar, only a couple of hundred meters from the Israeli border.
 
The hill and its 200 Syrian army defenders were besieged for months. The Syrian Air Force parachuted supplies of food, medicine and ammunition, which occasionally fell into rebel hands, and bombed rebel positions. At a certain stage, a Syrian army brigade tried to break through and lift the siege, but was ambushed and failed.
 
After the conquest, the Islamists took a group photo atop the hill, waving banners praising Osama bin Laden. Even more significant and worrisome from the Israeli perspective was the fact that the rebels got their hands on sophisticated weapons, such as anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles. These are the kind of missiles Israel describes as "game changers," which triggered Israeli Air Force bombings of arms convoys within Syria at least six times to prevent the weapons from reaching Hezbollah forces in Lebanon. Although the Shiite Lebanese movement might not have received the designated shipments, these missiles are now in the hands of another sworn enemy of Israel - the disciples of Bin Laden's al-Qaida.
 
In an even more far-reaching development, al-Nusra fighters took over another strategic post near the Israeli border a few days ago - Tel al-Jabia in the southern part of the region. The group issued a statement declaring that the Syrian army was operating a secret intelligence base inside the hill, manned and controlled by Iranian officers who were directing the Islamic Republic's electronic bugging equipment in the direction of Israel.
 
This announcement provides solid evidence of what has long been suspected - that Iranian intelligence officers are holding positions on the Syrian side of the Israeli border, and underlines just how the Syrian-Iranian strategic alliance is directed against Israel.
 
The rebels scored another major achievement in their successful takeover of Syria's 61st army brigade headquarters, which control the entire border area. The brigade commanders were forced to retreat to Damascus and are now leading the war in the Syrian Golan from "behind," rather than on the front lines with their soldiers.
 
Israeli officials estimate that nearly 60 to 70 percent of the area, including the surroundings of the regional capital Quneitra (which also serves as the official crossing point between Syria and Israel), are now under rebel control.
 
It is not clear however, what the division is between the anti-Israel Islamist forces, such as Al-Nusra, and a few other small groups and the secular units of the Free Syria Army (FSA), an opposition force considered to be friendly to Israel, or at least less hostile. Some of the FSA commanders have in the past expressed hope that Israel would help them with weapons and even training to fight the Assad army.
 
Israel's official policy is not to interfere in the civil war, and only to defend its vital interests, in the words of Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon. These interests include preventing the transfer of sophisticated weapons to Hezbollah and retaliating whenever shells or missiles are fired toward the Israeli side of the border, be they errant or deliberate by the Assad army or the rebels.
 
Regardless of its declared policy, Israel is quietly trying to shape and influence what happens on the other side of the border. It does so by striving to maintain ties with elders and local leaders in villages along the border, encouraging them to block Islamist elements from entering their villages. In return, Israel rewards these villagers by allowing wounded civilians and warriors of the secular groups to cross into Israel and be treated in a field hospital operated by IDF near the border. So far, more than 1,000 Syrians have been treated at this hospital. For years, these Syrians were brainwashed with anti-Israel propaganda by the Assad regime. Now they go home as loyal ambassadors of the Jewish State.
 
According to Israeli intelligence estimates, the warring sides are deadlocked and the war may continue for years. As long as Assad and his regime remain in power, the Islamist militants will target him as their main priority. But Israeli military and intelligence planners will not rule out the possibility that the Islamists may one day turn their arms - including sophisticated weapons - against Israel.